The GOP Hurricane: Updated Forecast

Happy Election Eve from Wisconsin! Walking the neighborhoods and working the phones in the Cheese State on behalf of Ron Johnson, an Oshkosh businessman poised to send career politician and 18-year Senate incumbent Russ Feingold packing has given me a unique and wonderful opportunity to hear directly from voters in this battleground state who are "mad as hell and not going to take it any more." The anger is real, the disappointment is real and the enthusiasm gulf is palpable. While our incredibly passionate and hard working Get Out the Vote volunteer teams across the state are setting national voter contact records, 160K calls in one day, the Democrats are paying volunteers, an oxymoron and sad commentary on the depressed state of their base, never mind independent and moderate voters.

I have found time since landing in Wisconsin to tweet regular updates and key articles on the state of electoral affairs here in Wisconsin around the country in the final hours of Campaign 2010. I am therefore going to provide you with an updated forecast in several blurbs of 140 characters or less. They story as told by Twitter is below. Follow @PGBlog for up to the minute news and observations over the final 24 hours and on Election Day. I'll be tweeting up a storm... or hurricane, or earthquake or whatever it is now.

After the tweets, enjoy a funny and pretty solid encapsulation of the discourse between Democrats and the American people between 2008 and now. Finally, as I did on Election Eve 2008, I have embedded the Ron Clark Academy kids reminding us that we can vote however we like tomorrow. I will provide a thorough, in depth report and analysis of this historic wave election when the results are in.

This has been a fun ride with never a dull moment. We saw History Made in America at the beginning of 2009 as Barack Obama became president of the United States. Only 1,017 days later, his agenda will be face a devastating repudiation as it is now Republicans' turn to make history and engineer our version of hope and change. God willing, starting November 3rd, both parties will find common cause and move America in a positive direction, restoring her exceptional place in the world, a place our nation has held for 234 years.

PGBlog "Midterm Maelstrom" only 6 days away! Handicappers jacking up House forecast. Cook 48-60. Silver 52. All #s on PGB.

PGBlog Taking off from Virginia to ride out the last 5 days campaigning for @Ron4Senate in Wisconsin! Let's get out the vote GOP!

PGBlog RoJo leads Feingold by 9 @ 53 in new poll 4 days out! Enthusiasm gap manifested in my talks with Wisco voters today.

PGBlog 86 hours away! Forecasts continue to rise. PGB's 60 now midpoint of Rothenberg's 55-65. All #s and countdown on PGB.

PGBlog PG Blog just passed 5,000 site views! On top of thousands of email reads. Thank you!! Make your calls in PGB Polls.

PGBlog @wisgop makes the most calls in the nation today w/ over 160k and takes top spot in the nation for calls made in the 12 day GOTV challenge.

PGBlog Johnson "has been running a devastatingly effective campaign" for senate. Wisconsin voters are ready for hope & change!

PGBlog "WI been run by Dems. Not in very good shape. Feingold's with the in crowd. Johnson's with the out crowd. Case closed."

PGBlog Election Eve Gallup: GOP could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible. Obama @ 45%.

PGBlog Nate Silver at 538 has compiled an awesome and dynamic Election Night tracker. His models project GOP +53 in House.

PGBlog Overall, 17 point swing on the generic ballot since Jan '09. 10 of those 17 points were in Obama's first 6 months.

PGBlog Plugging Gallup's GOP +15 Generic Ballot margin into conventional House correlation formula predicts 77 seat gain.

PGBlog @fivethirtyeight points to 5 reasons we could wake up Nov 3rd to Republican gains exceeding high expectations.

PGBlog Final Gallup enthusiasm gap in 1994, before a 54 seat GOP gain? 5 points. Election Eve poll has GOP up 7 this time.

PGBlog Grim Dems cite ObamaCare. "Everybody that is tied will lose, and everyone that is ahead by a few points will lose.”

PGBlog WaPo: At the start of the campaign, House Democrats' 39-seat majority seemed insurmountable. Democrats are in jeopardy from coast to coast.

PGBlog I was very impressed with Sean Duffy of MTV Real World fame yesterday, poised to put Obey's WI-7 seat in GOP hands.

PGBlog Democratic Agenda (Stimulus, ObamaCare, Cap & Trade) and victories in VA, NJ & MA defined this Midterm.

PGBlog Dem Coalition in tatters: GOP winning independents (+20, 28pt swing), women (+4) & college grads (+20).

PGBlog Rossi (R) wins vast student poll in WA Sen race 53-47. RCP tie. Potential 9th GOP pickup. Hope mom & dad listen!

PGBlog Obama world view was "that of a conventional liberal Democrat but he was president of a nation that was center-right."

PGBlog Pres Obama misread his mandate in lurching towards bigger government. His victory resulted from a desire to change Washington, not America.

AMERICANS: “So, the economy is pretty bad and there’s high employment. You think you can do something about that?”

DEMOCRATS AND OBAMA: “We can spend a trillion dollars we don’t have on pork and stuff.”

AMERICANS: “No … that’s not what we want. We’d really like you not to do that.”

DEMOCRATS: “You’re stupid. We’re doing it anyway.”

AMERICANS: “That’s not going to help us get jobs!”

DEMOCRATS: “Sure it will; millions of them … though they may be invisible. You’ll have to trust us they exist. And guess what else we’ll do: We’ll create a giant new government program to take over health care.”

AMERICANS: “That has nothing to do with jobs!”

DEMOCRATS: “We don’t care about that anymore. We really want a giant new health care program. We’re sure you’ll love it.”

AMERICANS: “Don’t pass that bill. You hear me? Absolutely do not pass that bill.”

DEMOCRATS: “Believe me; you’ll love it. It has … well, I don’t know what exactly is in the bill, but we’re sure it’s great.”

AMERICANS: “Listen to me: DO. NOT. PASS. THAT. BILL.”

DEMOCRATS: “You’re not the boss of me! We’re doing it anyway!”

AMERICANS: “Look what you did! Now the economy is way worse, we’re even deeper in debt, and we have a bunch of new laws we don’t want!”

DEMOCRATS: “You’re racist.”

AMERICANS: “Wha … How is that racist?”

DEMOCRATS: “Now you’re getting violent! Stop being violent and racist, you ignorant hillbillies! And remember to vote Democrat in November.”