Note from Pearce: I live! After a 6 month hiatis to focus on my real job, microtargeting voters for Republican campaigns around the country, I've finally logged on to the ole blog again. Appreciate all of you who continually asked when this day would come, ha. November 2nd will mark the culmination of a monumental election year, so let's get to it...
One year ago, I wrote that "After two disastrous elections in 2006 and 2008, the Republican Party has found a pulse and looks poised to come back with major gains." I wrote at the beginning of March that 2010 was indeed shaping up to be the Year of the Elephant. Well, it has become just that. Last year, I said "the extent of the GOP revival is unclear but gains are inevitable." Now, 38 days from November 2nd, those inevitable gains have become an inevitable wave. The Elephant proudly respresenting the Republican Party is currently poised in the wings of Congress to accept the shove on the way from ballot boxes across America where voters who are "mad as hell and not going to take it anymore" plan to throw Democrat members of Congress out, hand House control to Republicans, send a message to Obama and begin to turn the country around. A clarification to my Democrat friends, that's around, not backwards.The only remaining question mere weeks from the big day is, as a Democratic strategists puts it, whether a category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane is headed for Democrats in Washington. Voter anger and outright disgust at government, and Democrats specifically, has reached a fever pitch. No doubt Democrats' big government initiatives such as the stimulus and health care have offended many in our center-right nation founded on limited government and individual liberties. But they are also victims of their own power and success. Electorally, Democrats are in possession of seats that on paper they have no business in but that were swept up in the anti-Bush blue wave of 2006 and the Obama wave of 2008. These seats will come home to Republicans this year. Psychologically, voters see Democrats controlling every lever of power in Washington and thus, fairly or not, blame them for what ills America. These broad dynamics are driving the 2010 election cycle, a first midterm that, like most, is a reaction to the new President and will be a correction of a balance of power that has been skewed far left in the last two cycles. If the election were held today, the hurricane would be a category five and Democrats recently considered safe would be running for the Hills.
Since the Election is not today, I've taken a first stab at projecting Republican gains in November. (See the new projections feature at the top of the blog, where you get up-to-date projections from the three most prominent political handicappers in the business... and little ole me.) The leader of that trifecta, Charlie Cook, astutely sets the parameters of the wave in his recent column. Republicans must earn a net-gain of 39 seats in the House to "Fire Pelosi" and regain control of the House of Representatives. Most analysts believe Republicans will achieve this mark and perhaps more. I have gone with an even more bullish projection of a 60 seat gain for Republicans. Lest you think I'm crazy, Mark Halperin, of TIME, made waves, pun intended, suggesting this number was looking increasingly likely, and I've had conversations with Congressional insiders in which 60 was highlighted. An additional note, Republicans are contesting 430 of the 435 House seats, the most ever.
In the Senate, where more seats are on the table than any election since 1962, the mountain for Republicans is much steeper. We need to steal 10 seats from Democrats to wrest control. Let's briefly revisit middle-school civics. Republicans currently hold 41 Senate seats, but the Vice President, currently Joe "foot in mouth" Biden is constitutionally designated as President of the Senate and would break a 50-50 tie in Democrats' favor. Therefore, the magic number for Republican control is 51. In recent weeks, this prospect went from a pipe dream to surprisingly and increasingly possible as the GOP enjoyed recruiting success and voter anger put states in play thought out of contention earlier in the year. But hold the phone, just as the GOP Senate takeover effort was building momentum, the Tea Party struck, in a shocking and potentially devastating way.
In the state of Delaware, there is one Republican, one, who was considered capable of delivering the aforementioned Biden's old seat to Republicans. That man is long-time Delaware at-large district Congressman Mike Castle. Luckily for Republicans, he was running and favored to win in November. Then, everything changed. Tea Partiers, riding high after their stunning triumph over incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski in the Alaska primary, set their sites on Delaware, with perennial candidate Christine O'Donnell as their darling. O'Donnell was thought to be nothing but a minor nuisance to Castle's march to the Senate chamber. But in the closing days, the Tea Party Express worked its magic, made much easier in a small state, low turnout Republican primary, and toppled the titan Castle, successfully nominating O'Donnell to fill the Republican line on the November ballot.
All Democrats and most Republicans view O'Donnell as an extreme and wacky candidate with a snow ball's chance of delivering what was becoming a sure Republican pickup to the GOP. Castle's loss may have cost the GOP its best and only chance at a liberal Delaware Senate seat for decades to come. There is no doubt that the Tea Party, in this case, has cost Republicans dearly, even if by some miracle O'Donnell wins. That miracle would require a category 6 hurricane, but I'm finished ruling anything out in an election cycle unlike any this nation has ever seen. Some of you have heard my more colorful commentary on what took place in Delaware, but let's remember, the unrestrained fervor contained in the Tea Party movement, while it hurt in Delaware, can be expected to push the dial higher for Republicans in the House.
With that recent context, my Senate projection. I still believe Republicans will gain 10 seats in the Senate and sweep both houses of Congress. This bold projection is thanks, in large part, to the arrival of the West Virginia senate race to replace the late icon Robert Byrd on the competitive scene. Just as all looked lost in Delaware, businessman John Raese has pulled close to popular Democrat governor Joe Manchin, even leading in one poll. However, my projection requires not only taking the Byrd seat but all of the other 3 toss-up seats including California and Nevada, where Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is fighting Tea Party candidate Sharon Angle for his political life. By the way, the House has not changed hands without the Senate following suit since 1930. How's that for a historical nugget to hold on to.
Finally, in the 37 gubernatorial races across the country, the most ever, Republicans are faring very well. The Republican Governors Association is building on its tremendous success in 2009, resounding wins in Virginia and New Jersey. Democrats currently hold 26 to Republicans' 24 governorships. I project Republican candidates will nearly run the table, gaining 12 seats for a 36-14 advantage following November 2nd. My rationale for this third quite bullish call is a look at each race as with the Senate but more a hunch based on the power and savvy of Haley Barbour and his RGA.
So there you have it, the lay of the land 38 days from what promises to be a historic election. I will bring you more in the coming weeks, but now, I want to hear from you. I've put a few more polls up on the left side of the PGB site. Over or under on my projections of massive Republican gains in November? Will Republicans fire Pelosi and regain control of the House? Will Republicans win the Senate? Will GOP dominance in 2010 and congressional control over the next two years help or hurt Obama in 2012? More on this last question as well as tactical moves and polling in my next post. Fluid races from sea to shining sea will be moving rapidly in the final sprint so stay tuned!
Note: Check PGB often over the next 38 days to see the countdown as well as updated projections from Pearce and the three best handicappers in the business.
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