Independent Swing: GOP Sweeps Big Races

On November 3, 2009, the Republican Resurgence began. In two races billed as potential bellwethers of political fortunes in the 2010 midterms and watched for signals of the prevailing political winds, the GOP scored enormous victories in two states, Virginia and New Jersey, controlled by Democrats for the last eight years. Debate is fierce over how much, or little, the two local governor's races truly mean on a national scale, but, whatever the extent of their significance, they were bad news for the Democratic Party and the White House as Independents, who loved Democrats in recent years swung hard to the GOP.

Many saw the resounding defeats of the Democratic candidates as a referendum on President Obama, more specifically on his liberal, big-government policies at which much of the country is bristling. Despite Obama winning Virginia by 6 and New Jersey by 15 one year ago, the White House political machine has put forward its best effort at defying logic and claiming that these major defeats in no way reflect on prevailing views of the President and his policies. What they cannot deny is that these elections proved Obama's inability to transfer his own magic in any tangible way to other Democratic candidates. Despite campaigning with Corzine in New Jersey three times and with Deeds in Virginia twice, attempts to leverage his influence in their favor, "Obama surge voters" stayed home, almost all of them. Obama's name will not be at the top of the ballot again until 2012, and if these trends hold, it will be a very long 3 years for Democrats between now and then.

While most voters told exit pollsters that Obama was not a factor in their vote, the policy path he has charted in Washington has been responsible for the backlash against Democrats, particularly among Independents. In Virginia, Obama won Independents only one year ago by one point, McDonnell won them by 31, a shocking 32 point swing! In New Jersey, Obama won Independents by 4, Christie by 27, a 31 points swing! Independents in the first 9 months of Obama's presidency have fled the Democratic party in mass.

Another key segment of voters in Obama's historic win was suburbanites. These voters, like Independents, which many of them are, swung hard to the Republican candidates in both Virginia and New Jersey. What's more, seniors strongly supported McDonnell, by 18, and Christie, by 15. Of voters in Virginia who identified the economy of their chief concern, McDonnell won by 14, another ominous sign for the President and Democrats. Young voters, who are challenging for both parties, actually supported McDonnell. Virginia, a swing state in 2008, swung hard back to the GOP as the Democrats' coalition went into shambles, and the ugly truth for Obama is that he actually hurt, rather than helped Deeds.

The White House may have turned a blind eye to the Republican victories, but Democrats on the Hill realized there was a strong message in them getting "walloped" and began doing some soul searching. For Democrats who cared to pay attention, these results were a wake-up call. They are "feeling angst over 2010" when they are at the mercy of voters across the country. They have been forced into a stark realization that it ain't 2008 anymore. You would expect this to make them quite a bit more cautious on the Obama agenda. Indeed, some Democrats admitted, "I should be worried," and begun rethinking support of the liberal agenda. They would be crazy not to.

Occurring almost exactly one year after Obama and down ballot Dems thumped Republicans for the second straight cycle, these landmark victories offered the GOP enormous hope for a much brighter future. Republican voters proved "fired up and ready to go storm the ballot boxes" which points to great success in the approaching midterms where turnout is the name of the game. Republicans are learning valuable lessons from these victories by looking back at the successful strategies employed. McDonnell, who is already fielding questions about a future in the While House, ran on the Republican middle. His conservative bonafides unquestioned, he focused his campaign like a laser beam on kitchen table issues of jobs, the economy and transportation. This is the model for Republican candidates in the coming cycles.

According to Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, Obama was not watching the returns on Election Night, and Pelosi had the audacity to say "we won last night." Perhaps they should smell the GOP roses which swept over them and start heeding the clear and poignant message from the American people, slow down and back off, or pay in 2010 and 2012. These races demolished the great realignment myth of 2008. Conservatism in strong in American, and the more brazen Democrats continue to be with their liberal policies, the higher the building GOP tide will rise and the deeper their losses will be in coming years.

Election Day 2009!!

Election Day 2009 is finally here, and the few key races around the country are providing plenty of drama and excitement! While commentators warn against seeing results in Virginia, New Jersey or New York as bellwethers of what 2010 will hold for the two parties, sweeping conclusions will be drawn as many will see the races, 364 days after the historic election of Barack Obama, as a referendum of his first 9 months in office. With one of the races in the bag for the GOP, focus has turned to a nail-biter in New Jersey and an unusually dramatic Congressional contest in New York. The overall outlook is still foggy on Election Day as I and other political junkies stay glued to the latest polls for any hint of 11th hour momentum for the candidates.

Republicans will see wins in any of the three as a rejection of the Democratic agenda as Obama was victorious in both states and New York's 23rd district in 2008. Democratic losses, the GOP line goes, should spook Democrats in Congress who will face voters in conservative or swing districts next year, making them more timid about supporting Obama and Pelosi's signature liberal initiatives such as health care reform and cap & trade legislation. This will almost certainly prove true given that politicians seek to cover their own hide first, even when that effort puts them in conflict with party leadership. These Democrats will not be anxious to walk the proverbial plank for Obama if he proves unable to turnout the voters who elevated him to the presidency without his name on the ballot. Without a doubt, intensity is now solidly on the side of the GOP, just as it was for Democrats in 2006 & 2008 capitalizing on widespread discontentment with President Bush.

The Virginia Governor's race is absolutely over as the Republican candidate, Bob McDonnell, has opened up a commanding lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds. Given my work on the race, this victory will be especially rewarding. For proof that this one is a lost cause for the Democrats, look no further than the White House. Over a week ago the administration cranked up the CYA machine and began throwing Deeds under the bus for ignoring their wisdom from on high, even before Obama made his final stop with the candidate. The truth of the matter is that Creigh presented no concrete plans and represents a party that is ramming government down people's throats, rubbing all Republicans and most independents the wrong way, especially in Virginia as those swing voters "flock" to McDonnell. As PG friend, Curt Anderson, sarcastically wrote in Politico, Deeds' loss had nothing to do with the president's 25-point drop in job approval, promise.

On Election Day, McDonnell has a substantial enthusiasm gap and money on his side. With the "North Stars" lining up solidly behind the Republican, the only remaining question in this race is how soundly McDonnell will wallop Deeds and how much of a drag the lackluster Deeds campaign will be on down-ballot Democrats running for seats in the House of Delegates. Today will undoubtedly end in a GOP landslide in the Commonwealth, a state Obama won by 7 points one year ago. My latest involvement in the race was in the creation and writing of DiscoverDeeds.com, a website highlighting the DEEDSaster that would be a Deeds governorship. Check out the site, sign up and join the Facebook group!

Oh New Jersey... In years past, New Jersey has given hope to Republicans only to dash it in the end. This scenario could play out again as incumbent Governor Jon Corzine has spent his fortune tearing down Chris Christie, his Republican challenger, in order to compensate for his own dismal approval in the state. This negative effort has been effective in mounting a major Corzine comeback; however, don't confuse this with improvement in Corzine's standing in voters' eyes. He has simply brought Cristie down to his low level while not budging himself.

The X-factor in this race is independent candidate Chris Daggett who has polled as highly as 20 percent and is taking some of the vast anti-Corzine vote away from Christie. Daggett could well play spoiler today, but with 68 percent of voters believing he has no chance of winning, Republicans hope the historic trend of third party candidates under-performing the polls at the ballot box will hold true, handing Christie the victory.

On Election Day, this race is a pure toss-up with polling all over the map in the final days. On average, Christie is up by 1 point, well within the margin of error, but giving the GOP hope in the final hours in a reliably blue state which handed Obama a 15 point victory last November. It all comes down to the ground game today where the historically strong Democratic organization meets the intensity expressed by disenfranchised Republicans. Unfortunately, the outcome may remain a mystery late into tomorrow morning and beyond, recount anyone?

What a dramatic finish we've had in New York's 23rd Congressional district. This race is a special election triggered by Obama's appointment of long-time Republican Congressman John McHugh to be Secretary of the Army. The X-factor, and eventual front-runner, in this race has been Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman. Republican county chairmen selected liberal Dede Scozzafava as the Republican nominee to face Democrat Bill Owens. From the outset, the conservative base was unsatisfied with the choice and began to rally around Hoffman who had unsuccessfully pursued the Republican nomination. Hoffman went from a footnote to a serious candidate with an endorsement and enormous financial assist by the anti-tax Club for Growth.

In mid-October, observers started to wonder if Hoffman could actually win as polls began showing him neck-and-neck with the Democrat, outpacing Scozzafava. Over the last 10 days, high profile Republicans including Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty, both potential Presidential nominees in 2012, started a wave of support by lending their endorsements. By midweek, the talk was of a more likely "miracle" win by the third party candidate, and commentators were trying to figure out what it all meant.

On Saturday, the race took a crazy turn as Scozzafava, noticing her paltry poll number, dropped out of the race leaving only Hoffman and the Democrat, Owens. The RNC immediately professed full support for Hoffman, recognizing that the base had sent a strong message. Upon hearing of her withdrawal, team Obama jumped into high gear seeking a Scozzafava endorsement for the Democrat. They succeeded as Dede gave her party the ole birdy in endorsing Bill Owens with only hours remaining in the race. Even still, conservatives see a Hoffman victory on the horizon. However, with the unprecedented theatrics of the last 72 hours, NY-23 can only be considered a toss-up as polls open in the North Country.

The results in Virginia will be known early tonight; the other two races could keep us up late. In 2004, I welcomed a nice birthday present in the form of W Still the President; in 2006, I was up until the sun rose over Scotland with a less rosy outlook for Republicans back here in the US; in 2008, I stood in Salisbury, NC taking in with sadness Elizabeth Dole's concession speech. Tonight, I look forward to celebrating in Richmond with Bob McDonnell. And, if the wind is blowing just the right way, I'll be celebrating a Republican/Conservative sweep up and down the East Coast!

For real time returns tomorrow night, follow me on Twitter. I'll be tweeting up a storm from Bob's victory party. Here's to another exciting Election Day and a resurgence of Republican enthusiasm and conservative principles with which to meet the enormous challenges facing our great nation.