The GOP Hurricane: Updated Forecast

Happy Election Eve from Wisconsin! Walking the neighborhoods and working the phones in the Cheese State on behalf of Ron Johnson, an Oshkosh businessman poised to send career politician and 18-year Senate incumbent Russ Feingold packing has given me a unique and wonderful opportunity to hear directly from voters in this battleground state who are "mad as hell and not going to take it any more." The anger is real, the disappointment is real and the enthusiasm gulf is palpable. While our incredibly passionate and hard working Get Out the Vote volunteer teams across the state are setting national voter contact records, 160K calls in one day, the Democrats are paying volunteers, an oxymoron and sad commentary on the depressed state of their base, never mind independent and moderate voters.

I have found time since landing in Wisconsin to tweet regular updates and key articles on the state of electoral affairs here in Wisconsin around the country in the final hours of Campaign 2010. I am therefore going to provide you with an updated forecast in several blurbs of 140 characters or less. They story as told by Twitter is below. Follow @PGBlog for up to the minute news and observations over the final 24 hours and on Election Day. I'll be tweeting up a storm... or hurricane, or earthquake or whatever it is now.

After the tweets, enjoy a funny and pretty solid encapsulation of the discourse between Democrats and the American people between 2008 and now. Finally, as I did on Election Eve 2008, I have embedded the Ron Clark Academy kids reminding us that we can vote however we like tomorrow. I will provide a thorough, in depth report and analysis of this historic wave election when the results are in.

This has been a fun ride with never a dull moment. We saw History Made in America at the beginning of 2009 as Barack Obama became president of the United States. Only 1,017 days later, his agenda will be face a devastating repudiation as it is now Republicans' turn to make history and engineer our version of hope and change. God willing, starting November 3rd, both parties will find common cause and move America in a positive direction, restoring her exceptional place in the world, a place our nation has held for 234 years.

PGBlog "Midterm Maelstrom" only 6 days away! Handicappers jacking up House forecast. Cook 48-60. Silver 52. All #s on PGB.

PGBlog Taking off from Virginia to ride out the last 5 days campaigning for @Ron4Senate in Wisconsin! Let's get out the vote GOP!

PGBlog RoJo leads Feingold by 9 @ 53 in new poll 4 days out! Enthusiasm gap manifested in my talks with Wisco voters today.

PGBlog 86 hours away! Forecasts continue to rise. PGB's 60 now midpoint of Rothenberg's 55-65. All #s and countdown on PGB.

PGBlog PG Blog just passed 5,000 site views! On top of thousands of email reads. Thank you!! Make your calls in PGB Polls.

PGBlog @wisgop makes the most calls in the nation today w/ over 160k and takes top spot in the nation for calls made in the 12 day GOTV challenge.

PGBlog Johnson "has been running a devastatingly effective campaign" for senate. Wisconsin voters are ready for hope & change!

PGBlog "WI been run by Dems. Not in very good shape. Feingold's with the in crowd. Johnson's with the out crowd. Case closed."

PGBlog Election Eve Gallup: GOP could gain anywhere from 60 seats on up, with gains well beyond that possible. Obama @ 45%.

PGBlog Nate Silver at 538 has compiled an awesome and dynamic Election Night tracker. His models project GOP +53 in House.

PGBlog Overall, 17 point swing on the generic ballot since Jan '09. 10 of those 17 points were in Obama's first 6 months.

PGBlog Plugging Gallup's GOP +15 Generic Ballot margin into conventional House correlation formula predicts 77 seat gain.

PGBlog @fivethirtyeight points to 5 reasons we could wake up Nov 3rd to Republican gains exceeding high expectations.

PGBlog Final Gallup enthusiasm gap in 1994, before a 54 seat GOP gain? 5 points. Election Eve poll has GOP up 7 this time.

PGBlog Grim Dems cite ObamaCare. "Everybody that is tied will lose, and everyone that is ahead by a few points will lose.”

PGBlog WaPo: At the start of the campaign, House Democrats' 39-seat majority seemed insurmountable. Democrats are in jeopardy from coast to coast.

PGBlog I was very impressed with Sean Duffy of MTV Real World fame yesterday, poised to put Obey's WI-7 seat in GOP hands.

PGBlog Democratic Agenda (Stimulus, ObamaCare, Cap & Trade) and victories in VA, NJ & MA defined this Midterm.

PGBlog Dem Coalition in tatters: GOP winning independents (+20, 28pt swing), women (+4) & college grads (+20).

PGBlog Rossi (R) wins vast student poll in WA Sen race 53-47. RCP tie. Potential 9th GOP pickup. Hope mom & dad listen!

PGBlog Obama world view was "that of a conventional liberal Democrat but he was president of a nation that was center-right."

PGBlog Pres Obama misread his mandate in lurching towards bigger government. His victory resulted from a desire to change Washington, not America.

AMERICANS: “So, the economy is pretty bad and there’s high employment. You think you can do something about that?”

DEMOCRATS AND OBAMA: “We can spend a trillion dollars we don’t have on pork and stuff.”

AMERICANS: “No … that’s not what we want. We’d really like you not to do that.”

DEMOCRATS: “You’re stupid. We’re doing it anyway.”

AMERICANS: “That’s not going to help us get jobs!”

DEMOCRATS: “Sure it will; millions of them … though they may be invisible. You’ll have to trust us they exist. And guess what else we’ll do: We’ll create a giant new government program to take over health care.”

AMERICANS: “That has nothing to do with jobs!”

DEMOCRATS: “We don’t care about that anymore. We really want a giant new health care program. We’re sure you’ll love it.”

AMERICANS: “Don’t pass that bill. You hear me? Absolutely do not pass that bill.”

DEMOCRATS: “Believe me; you’ll love it. It has … well, I don’t know what exactly is in the bill, but we’re sure it’s great.”

AMERICANS: “Listen to me: DO. NOT. PASS. THAT. BILL.”

DEMOCRATS: “You’re not the boss of me! We’re doing it anyway!”

AMERICANS: “Look what you did! Now the economy is way worse, we’re even deeper in debt, and we have a bunch of new laws we don’t want!”

DEMOCRATS: “You’re racist.”

AMERICANS: “Wha … How is that racist?”

DEMOCRATS: “Now you’re getting violent! Stop being violent and racist, you ignorant hillbillies! And remember to vote Democrat in November.”

The GOP Hurricane is Coming Ashore

The story of the last two years is as simple as it is dramatic. It is the epic story of an administration with a highly ideological agenda encountering a rising resistance from the American people over the major question in dispute: the size and reach and power of government and, even more fundamentally, the nature of the American social contract. An adjudication of the question will be rendered on Nov. 2.

-Charles Krauthammer, Washington Post, October 22, 2010

Way back on July 4th weekend, Charlie Cook observed that "recent numbers confirm that trends spotted late [Summer 2009] have fully developed into at least a category 3 or 4 hurricane." Now, 9 days from a historic midterm election, all signs, macro and micro, point to that forecast holding true. Top Democratic strategists and pollster Peter Hart acknowledges "it's hard to say that Democrats are facing anything less than a category 4 hurricane." He adds that "Election Day is coming, the hurricane force has not diminished, and it is going to hit Democrats head on."

Hart, like most analysts, see the House as a goner. The GOP will easily pass the 39-seat net gain mark required to take control of the lower legislative body. Nancy Pelosi's days as Speaker are numbered. Predictions on the number of Republican takeovers in the House range from the mid 40s to 75, a very bullish yet not insane prediction by my friend and colleague Bobby Trivett. (Read The Onion: Democrats Could Lose Up To 8,000 Seats, unfortunately, there are only 435 seats...) Democratic strategists are pessimistic, saying the ceiling for Republican gains is "up to seventy." This upper tier of the window would far exceed even the gains Republicans made in 1994, 52 seats, and be the largest turnover in well over a half-century. In the Democratic wave of 2006, the party won 30 seats in a successful takeover effort. I am sticking with my September 23rd projection of a 60 seat gain for Republicans, which many at the time thought was well out of bounds. Now, 60 seats is midrange among bullish predictions.

The rapid upward movement has resulted from an ever-expanding House playing field. Nearly every day the National Republican Congressional Committee is inserting money and heat into districts previously thought wholly safe for Democratic incumbents, often launching television ads hitting these incumbents for votes in favor of one or more of 2010's "disqualifying issues," Stimulus, ObamaCare, Cap & Trade. Analysts now agree that over 100 seats are in play. Making confident predictions as to how many of these 100+ seats will land in Republican hands is complicated by the fact that, according to those at the top of the Republican House efforts, the polling looks too good. These strategists are sending the polling back to be reweighted, having a hard time believing that the wave could actually be as high as indicated. In many cases, Democrats are seeing disparate results, sometimes to the order of 7 or 8 points, a difference that could flip dozens of races. But even despite their more favorable polling, the DCCC has moved into full triage mode, cutting off long-time incumbents who are beyond hope against the Republican wave.

The Senate, on the other hand, has been a roller coaster since my predictions one month ago. While I don't see enough evidence race by race to change my admittedly bullish projection of a +10 Republican takeover in spite of the Tea Party disaster in Delaware, a half dozen races around the country have seen a natural tightening favoring Democrats as the election draws closer and Democrat voters come home, in some cases aided by unrelenting personal attacks against Republican opponents. Now that Democrats have lost the policy messaging battle on the Stimulus, ObamaCare and Gov't Spending more broadly in spectacular fashion, their only remaining strategy is to disqualify the opposition, making Republican candidates unacceptable alternatives to voters. Admittedly, some GOP candidates in Senate races have made this task all too easy with somewhat extreme or impolitic past statements that have become constant refrains on the airwaves. That word "extreme" is the one thing that Democrats hope will save them from an electoral bloodbath on November 2nd.

Despite the clear tightening, the good news for Republicans is that Democrats have failed to disqualify Sharon Angle, challenging Majority Leader Harry Reid in Nevada, Ken Buck, challenging appointed Senator Michael Bennett in Colorado or Rand Paul, son of presidential candidate Ron Paul running for the open Senate seat in Kentucky. While the establishment, rather than Tea Party, backed Republicans in each of these races would likely be faring better against the Democrats, each of these three primary winners are still an even money chance or slightly better.

The Senate race that has made the most striking move towards Democrats in recent weeks is the open seat race in Pennsylvania. Democrat Congressman Joe Sestak, who toppled party-switching incumbent Arlen Specter back in May with a late surge is attempting to repeat the trick against Republican Pat Toomey who had run out to an 8 point lead as recently as a week ago before seeing it evaporate in recent days. The race had been moved to Lean Republican by most handicappers but now, a two point contest, is considered a toss-up. However, Toomey appears to have stopped the bleeding as Morning Call Tracking shows the race moving back in his direction. Trivett, a Pennsylvania native, observes, "with the Republican candidate from Pittsburgh's Alleghany County, it is hard to see how he loses this race." This logic is predicated on the fact that Democrats in Pennsylvania statewide races rely on very heavy liberal turnout, and a big margin, in the urban areas of Pittsburgh and Philadelphia which bookend an otherwise rural, blue collar, conservative state.

As of today, Real Clear Politics polling averages indicate that Republicans would pick up 8 seats, two short of the 10 needed for Senate control. As discussed in my last post, a Democratic White House necessitates 51 seats for Republican control; the party currently holds 41. On October 12th, RCP polling predicted a 10 seats gain and Senate takeover for Republicans; however, that same day, Illinois slipped to the Democrat's advantage, setting the GOP back. Mark Kirk has retaken the lead in the mud fest that has become the Illinois race, but in the meantime, West Virginia and Washington tipped towards Democrats, which is where we are today. All the while, the marquee Nevada race has teetered and tottered between Tea Party favorite Sharon Angle and the Majority Leader. Angle leads by a fraction of a point today in a race that is all about the ground game now with precious few undecideds remaining. Senate control could hang on the Leader's seat, and we may not know the outcome for some time after Nov. 2.

Underlying each of these horse races that collectively will determine who controls the Senate in the 112th Congress, is the deeper question of whether Republicans may actually be better off, at least long term, taking the House but leaving the Senate in Democrat hands. As much as I enjoy cheerleading for a category 5, historic political hurricane to blow from sea to shining sea, I believe Republicans will be better positioned to challenge and defeat President Obama in 2012 if we do not assume control, and responsibility, for the entire legislative branch of the federal government. This outcome, while celebrated on November 3rd, would give the president a ripe foil to leverage, contrast and offload blame on as the American people predictably remain agitated and impatient with all things Washington over the next two years.

Former President Bill Clinton is the text book example of how triangulation and moderation in a new shared power climate in DC can be used to bolster the electoral prospects and stature of a previously unpopular president. Note the the last Republican wave to which I often draw comparisons was 1994, only two years before President Clinton coasted to a second term by 9 points and 220 electoral votes over Bob Dole. I would rather not give President Obama that environmental advantage; however, many believe Obama is incapable of adapting as nimbly as Clinton did and leveraging such an opportunity to his benefit. Moderation, the key ingredient in Clinton's success in 1995-96 is something we rarely see out of this much more liberal and ideological Commander and Chief.

One of my close friends serving as an aid to a Republican Senator agrees. He notes that "we don't want to be handing Obama a Republican Congress" adding "let's wait until 2012 to take it all back." I think this sentiment is spot on. It is also very likely that, if we fall a seat or two short this year, we would regain the Senate in 2012. This is due to some simple math and the flip side of Democrat's 2006 wave coin. This expansive and thus necessarily weaker class of Senators swept in by animosity towards George W. Bush in '06 will be up for reelection, 22 of them to be exact compared to only 9 Republican seats on the line. Anything short of appreciable Republican gains, more than enough for a Senate majority, under this Senate landscape would require a drastic shift in America's electoral environment over the next two years. Allowing that we've seen a stunning swing, rebellion really, over the last two years, I still see this as highly unlikely. Therefore, as hard as it is not to root for the max this year, we Republicans would almost certainly be better off giving the President a split decision in Congress to better position ourselves to usher him out of the White House and Republicans into Senate control in 2012. However, these long-term strategic considerations will have no bearing on how high the Republican wave rises on November 2nd, so we'll see what happens and seek to make the best of it as all attention turns to the 2012 presidential race on November 3rd.

In the world of politics, the next 9 days will be a lifetime. I will be writing as often as possible on the ripples that will define and comprise the eventual Republican wave set to make full landfall Tuesday a week from now. The existence of such a hurricane force wave is now beyond question; it is its depth and breadth that will keep all of us guessing until the final votes are counted... and with so many races going down to the wire, we could be on the edge of our seats for weeks to come.

The Elephant Waiting in the Wings

Note from Pearce: I live! After a 6 month hiatis to focus on my real job, microtargeting voters for Republican campaigns around the country, I've finally logged on to the ole blog again. Appreciate all of you who continually asked when this day would come, ha. November 2nd will mark the culmination of a monumental election year, so let's get to it...

One year ago, I wrote that "After two disastrous elections in 2006 and 2008, the Republican Party has found a pulse and looks poised to come back with major gains." I wrote at the beginning of March that 2010 was indeed shaping up to be the Year of the Elephant. Well, it has become just that. Last year, I said "the extent of the GOP revival is unclear but gains are inevitable." Now, 38 days from November 2nd, those inevitable gains have become an inevitable wave. The Elephant proudly respresenting the Republican Party is currently poised in the wings of Congress to accept the shove on the way from ballot boxes across America where voters who are "mad as hell and not going to take it anymore" plan to throw Democrat members of Congress out, hand House control to Republicans, send a message to Obama and begin to turn the country around. A clarification to my Democrat friends, that's around, not backwards.

The only remaining question mere weeks from the big day is, as a Democratic strategists puts it, whether a category 3, 4 or 5 hurricane is headed for Democrats in Washington. Voter anger and outright disgust at government, and Democrats specifically, has reached a fever pitch. No doubt Democrats' big government initiatives such as the stimulus and health care have offended many in our center-right nation founded on limited government and individual liberties. But they are also victims of their own power and success. Electorally, Democrats are in possession of seats that on paper they have no business in but that were swept up in the anti-Bush blue wave of 2006 and the Obama wave of 2008. These seats will come home to Republicans this year. Psychologically, voters see Democrats controlling every lever of power in Washington and thus, fairly or not, blame them for what ills America. These broad dynamics are driving the 2010 election cycle, a first midterm that, like most, is a reaction to the new President and will be a correction of a balance of power that has been skewed far left in the last two cycles. If the election were held today, the hurricane would be a category five and Democrats recently considered safe would be running for the Hills.

Since the Election is not today, I've taken a first stab at projecting Republican gains in November. (See the new projections feature at the top of the blog, where you get up-to-date projections from the three most prominent political handicappers in the business... and little ole me.) The leader of that trifecta, Charlie Cook, astutely sets the parameters of the wave in his recent column. Republicans must earn a net-gain of 39 seats in the House to "Fire Pelosi" and regain control of the House of Representatives. Most analysts believe Republicans will achieve this mark and perhaps more. I have gone with an even more bullish projection of a 60 seat gain for Republicans. Lest you think I'm crazy, Mark Halperin, of TIME, made waves, pun intended, suggesting this number was looking increasingly likely, and I've had conversations with Congressional insiders in which 60 was highlighted. An additional note, Republicans are contesting 430 of the 435 House seats, the most ever.

In the Senate, where more seats are on the table than any election since 1962, the mountain for Republicans is much steeper. We need to steal 10 seats from Democrats to wrest control. Let's briefly revisit middle-school civics. Republicans currently hold 41 Senate seats, but the Vice President, currently Joe "foot in mouth" Biden is constitutionally designated as President of the Senate and would break a 50-50 tie in Democrats' favor. Therefore, the magic number for Republican control is 51. In recent weeks, this prospect went from a pipe dream to surprisingly and increasingly possible as the GOP enjoyed recruiting success and voter anger put states in play thought out of contention earlier in the year. But hold the phone, just as the GOP Senate takeover effort was building momentum, the Tea Party struck, in a shocking and potentially devastating way.

In the state of Delaware, there is one Republican, one, who was considered capable of delivering the aforementioned Biden's old seat to Republicans. That man is long-time Delaware at-large district Congressman Mike Castle. Luckily for Republicans, he was running and favored to win in November. Then, everything changed. Tea Partiers, riding high after their stunning triumph over incumbent Republican Senator Lisa Murkowski in the Alaska primary, set their sites on Delaware, with perennial candidate Christine O'Donnell as their darling. O'Donnell was thought to be nothing but a minor nuisance to Castle's march to the Senate chamber. But in the closing days, the Tea Party Express worked its magic, made much easier in a small state, low turnout Republican primary, and toppled the titan Castle, successfully nominating O'Donnell to fill the Republican line on the November ballot.

All Democrats and most Republicans view O'Donnell as an extreme and wacky candidate with a snow ball's chance of delivering what was becoming a sure Republican pickup to the GOP. Castle's loss may have cost the GOP its best and only chance at a liberal Delaware Senate seat for decades to come. There is no doubt that the Tea Party, in this case, has cost Republicans dearly, even if by some miracle O'Donnell wins. That miracle would require a category 6 hurricane, but I'm finished ruling anything out in an election cycle unlike any this nation has ever seen. Some of you have heard my more colorful commentary on what took place in Delaware, but let's remember, the unrestrained fervor contained in the Tea Party movement, while it hurt in Delaware, can be expected to push the dial higher for Republicans in the House.

With that recent context, my Senate projection. I still believe Republicans will gain 10 seats in the Senate and sweep both houses of Congress. This bold projection is thanks, in large part, to the arrival of the West Virginia senate race to replace the late icon Robert Byrd on the competitive scene. Just as all looked lost in Delaware, businessman John Raese has pulled close to popular Democrat governor Joe Manchin, even leading in one poll. However, my projection requires not only taking the Byrd seat but all of the other 3 toss-up seats including California and Nevada, where Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid is fighting Tea Party candidate Sharon Angle for his political life. By the way, the House has not changed hands without the Senate following suit since 1930. How's that for a historical nugget to hold on to.

Finally, in the 37 gubernatorial races across the country, the most ever, Republicans are faring very well. The Republican Governors Association is building on its tremendous success in 2009, resounding wins in Virginia and New Jersey. Democrats currently hold 26 to Republicans' 24 governorships. I project Republican candidates will nearly run the table, gaining 12 seats for a 36-14 advantage following November 2nd. My rationale for this third quite bullish call is a look at each race as with the Senate but more a hunch based on the power and savvy of Haley Barbour and his RGA.

So there you have it, the lay of the land 38 days from what promises to be a historic election. I will bring you more in the coming weeks, but now, I want to hear from you. I've put a few more polls up on the left side of the PGB site. Over or under on my projections of massive Republican gains in November? Will Republicans fire Pelosi and regain control of the House? Will Republicans win the Senate? Will GOP dominance in 2010 and congressional control over the next two years help or hurt Obama in 2012? More on this last question as well as tactical moves and polling in my next post. Fluid races from sea to shining sea will be moving rapidly in the final sprint so stay tuned!

Note: Check PGB often over the next 38 days to see the countdown as well as updated projections from Pearce and the three best handicappers in the business.

Health Care Bill Signed Plus Odds & Ends

Democrat health care reform legislation, aka Obamacare, has been like a cat hanging on to its ninth life by one whisker, yet last week, on March 23, 2010, President Obama signed the landmark bill into law. As Joe Biden so eloquently put it, "this is a big * deal." That date, indeed, may go down in history along with August 14, 1935 (Social Security Act) and July 30, 1965 (Medicare Bill) as a pivotal moment in the evolution of America's political/social/economic culture.

However, evolution and "change" do not always move us in a positive direction as a nation. The historic nature of this milestone is unquestioned, but whether it will help cure the many ills of our health care system and mitigate our dire financial straits or simply push down the accelerator on an already unsustainable and perilous path will be the subject of rampant debate for the foreseeable future. A key distinction between this historic legislation and the two before is that those enjoyed significant bipartisan support, this bill had none.

First to the policy objections. I have written extensively over the past year addressing many of the pivotal issues and hidden burdens embodied in the 2,000 plus page legislation, so let's take a big picture view. In fairness, there are good and bad features of the legislation. Now that the bill is law, I can only hope it works to slow or reverse our current trajectory of higher cost and higher deficits, but I'm afraid such a hope finds little grounding in reality and rational expectation. For example, it is "politically inconceivable" that future Congresses will show more courage than this one mustered and actually implement the spending cuts and tax increases critical to the cost projections of the bill. I do fear that this bill, focused on more government to fix the problem and more spending to reduce the deficits, will only exacerbate the problem in the midst of already record deficits and out of control spending. When the "doc fix" is included (adding $371 billion) and deceptive double counting eliminated, the deficit actually increases by an additional $260 billion over ten years.

Even with half a trillion dollars in new taxes and another half trillion in Medicare cuts, this legislation does not bend the cost curve down, a cost curve that, if not reversed, will break a lot more than our health care system. Instead it drives up cost and over time could actually reduce access to health care as rationing will likely become our last best hope of staying off the financial precipice. The "disagreeable absence of a free lunch" strikes again. Despite the many budget gimmicks and dodges cleverly built into the package, which paint a deceptively rosy picture of overall cost, it will push our health care costs and deficits only higher. We cannot fail to drastically and boldly reduce health care costs that are crippling an already weak economy. This law fails. It it a "fiscal time bomb" waiting to explode as the revenue will never come and costs soar ever higher.

In light of this already grim outlook, we all, Democrats and Republicans, agree that our health care system is in desperate need of reform, but Republicans tend to believe, rightly in my view, that this brand of reform will only make our current problems exponentially worse and pile new ones on top. The Republican solution is, broadly, to increase consumer choice and competition as a means of immediately reducing costs while correcting a system of perverse incentives and opaque costs by emphasizing tax incentives and state innovations. Viewed through the prism of the philosophical dichotomy between the parties, Democrats favor a solution predicated on increased government involvement and control while Republicans favor greater individual liberties and a free-market approach to the problem.

Now, because nothing that happens in Washington is without wide-ranging and often complex political implications, to the political fallout of Democrat health care reform. Yes, Democrats achieved a goal of paramount importance to the party in pushing through Obama's top legislative priority, but could it do more harm than good for majority and haunt them in November and beyond?

From raucous town halls during the summer months to demonstrations on the Capitol steps in the final hours of the sausage making, Americans of all political stripes have passionately and repeatedly expressed their displeasure with the Democrats' proposals. The will of the American people, expressed in polls from sea to shining sea, notwithstanding, Democrats tirelessly pushed their liberal agenda for health care through the halls of Congress. This seemingly blind and ideological pursuit could cost them dearly at the ballot box and prove to be a "colossal miscalculation." The year-long, tumultuous debate has inflicted significant damage on Obama and the Democratic Party.

As I recently outlined, 2010 is shaping up as the year of the Republican elephant. It's hard to see how the passage of Obamacare, which voters did not want, ameliorates what is looking like an electoral disaster for Democrats in November. Many analysts believe they have now dug the hole deeper, pointing to the voter backlash in 1994 following the failure of Hillarycare. The twenty Democrats hailing from John McCain won districts who voted in favor of the bill have earned bright red targets on their backs, with Sarah Palin and other national Republicans pouncing.

While we're all tired of legislative process stories, it's worth acknowledging voters' distaste for the kind of arm twisting, backroom dealing, logrolling, rules changing and raw politicking they witnessed from Democrats in a no-holds-barred effort to see their will done on a straight party-line vote, not to mention the broken promises. The use of reconciliation to push the legislation through the Senate on a simple majority vote after Democrats lost their 60th seat to Scott Brown in Massachusetts was only the tip of the iceberg.

Following passage, the public is very divided but hardly undecided about Obamacare, less than 10% without an opinion. In the immediate aftermath, Republicans are predictably unhappy, Democrats are happy and Independents are divided but favor Republicans on the ballot. The economy will almost certainly remain voters preeminent concern in November, but both sides will attempt to use health care to fit their own narrative. An improved perception of health care among the electorate is only one leg of the stool Democrats must build between now and November to avoid an unmitigated walloping that could cost them control of one or both houses of Congress. For starters, they need Obama's popularity and the sluggish economy to make marked improvements.

The President has certainly gotten a lot of positive press following the signing, but how long will the afterglow last and will any real bounce show up in the polls? Some polls indicate a slight post-signing bounce while others indicate no real change since the battle lines were drawn last summer. If anything, the Democratic base has ticked up a notch in enthusiasm, something they have been sorely lacking since electing Obama in 2008. Whether any positive bounce is lasting on transient will depend on "salesmanship and implementation" by Obama, his fellow Democrats and the administration. We'll have to wait until November to see how this saga ultimately plays in the minds of the only ones who matter, voters.

PG Poll: Do you support the passage of Democrat health care reform? Vote on the left side of the page.

Texting and driving has been in the news a lot over the last several months, and as someone who has been guilty from time to time, I find it interesting. Unless you're the rare "supertasker," the practice does impair your driving. From distracted driving forums to Senate legislation to an executive order from Obama, lawmakers are cracking down. The practice has even been dubbed a "menace to society." Society agrees. Ninety-one percent favor a ban. In my home state of North Carolina, DWT (I want a patent on that acronym) is now illegal and punishable by a $100 fine. Over a dozen states have passed such laws. Lest we paint texting with too broad a negative brush, remember that soft-hearted texters sent over $20 million to Haiti in one week. Political candidates are now wondering if they can leverage the technology to their benefit. Regardless of why you're punching away at the phone keyboard, make sure you steer clear, ha, of the banned words of 2010. Oh, and watch out for cell phone induced brain cancer.

While we're on technology, see the next generation of must have electronics. To make these gadgets run faster, the FCC is launching a "visionary" plan to expand broadband access across the country, something Google and everyday users have anxiously awaited. Speaking of Google, the behemoth of all things internet played a major role in Scott Brown's stunning victory in Massachusetts. Meanwhile, the White House has been all aTwitter of late, even Obama tweeted, and the GOP has launched a hot new BlackBerry app for congressmen. Check out these two fascinating videos on the power of social media. Finally, after years of rumor, it looks like the iPhone really is branching out from AT&T.

Here's an assortment of particularly interesting pieces:

Turns our jerks are bad decision makers. Tall people are happier than short people. The 50 best YouTube videos of all time or the best and worst in four minutes. Nobody trusts congressmen or car salesmen but give nurses and doctors hight marks, would hope you trust your doctor. Scientific evidence points to life after death as 59% of Americans are "absolutely certain" there is a God. Basic arithmetic illustrates why the enemy of my enemy is my friend. The Toyota crisis has demonstrated the "price of modernity." Your race may determine your nighttime and sleep habits. The President has a Facebook feed, sorta. In honor of a midterm election year, brush up on your political lexicon.

I'll end with what we all know is the most important thing gripping our nation this month, March Madness! Even as his health care reform was in its final hours and he was sharpening his 22 pens for the signing, the President was "examining the rubble of his bracket." He filled out a tourney bracket for the second year, but isn't seeing the success he enjoyed last year. With Duke in the Final Four, I (on the right in this ESPN pic) and my fellow Cameron Crazies are boiling over with excitement and anticipation, excitement that brain researchers at Duke and UNC have recently studied. Lest you hate, these Dukies "should be cheered" and are "worth rooting for." Heck, even UNC coach Roy Williams, sweating through an NIT Final Four game as I type, is picking Duke! Senate candidates in Kentucky are actually attacking each other on their Duke ties, love it! Turns out sports viewers generally and college basketball fans in particular are largely Republican, and most of the Final Four teams have GOP fan bases. If you don't quite get what the big * deal is (thanks Biden), see this guide on bluffing your way through the Dance... or follow the hilarious name bracket instead. If you do get it, Let's Go Duke!!

2010: The Year of the Elephant

In American electoral politics, the great pendulum that is the balance of power between the two major parties inevitably swings from side to side as voters grow weary of ineffectual or excessively ideological rule by the party in power. As we approach the 2010 Midterm Elections, the pendulum, having moved far left in 2006 and 2008, is poised to make a dramatic swing back towards the right. Over the past two elections, Democrats picked up 54 seats in the House of Representatives and 14 seats in the Senate. In 2006, Democrats swept to majorities in both houses of Congress. In 2008, the party stretched its majorities in Congress and elected Barack Obama to the White House.

Only one year ago, Barack Obama was on top of the world and riding a wave of hope into the second decade of the 21st Century. Analysts predicted Democrats would add seats to their supermajority in the Senate, and, while the historic norm of the President's party losing House seats in his first midterm election was expected, no one dreamt that the party's 77-seat majority could be in danger. That was then; this is now.

In the months sinse, three Senate Democrats have announced retirements, Byron Dorgan of North Dakota, Chris Dodd of Connecticut and Evan Bayh of Indiana, joining 16 in the House, including one more today, which hands Republicans another solid pickup opportunity. These retirements, with the exception of Dodd, only exacerbate what is already becoming a potentially disastrous cycle for Democrats, and many think the exit number will go higher.

The generic congressional ballot has swung 13 points towards Republicans, from a eight point Dem advantage in 2008 to a five point lead for the GOP. Democrats also fell below the majority support enjoyed since 2005 and saw their affiliation shrink in 39 states. The net favorability of the two parties has converged as Democrats have watched an 18 point positive become a 10 point negative. A full 40% of Americans now describe themselves as conservative, the highest number in years and twice the liberal ID of 20%. There has unquestionably been a significant political climate change across the country, yet Democrats in power haven't seemed to notice.

In his first year, the President's approval has rapidly fallen from 68 to below 50, a record decline. He's suffered an approval index dive of 41 points. Obama's approval in December was the lowest ever recorded 11 months into a president's term. His standing is even worse on major issues with Republicans now trusted more than Democrats to solve many of the nations most salient problems. Much of this drop is due to broken promises, the substance of his policies and what some see as a bait-and-switch operation. Even in the White House press room, the laughter has ended.

The swing has been most dramatic among the ever-critical Independent bloc of voters. This group supported Obama 64-16 in January 2009 but now disapprove of his performance 51-38. They approve of his performance on only one issue, international affairs. Democrats are understandably alarmed as Independents desert the party, due in no small part to the protracted fight for Democrat's health care reform. Independents now give Republicans a 16 point advantage on the generic ballot. What's more, there is a significant intensity gap with Republicans far more interested in November's midterm elections than Democrats. In midterm elections, where turnout is key, this intensity gap could portend the kind of wave Republicans hope for.

At the ballot box, Republicans have swept three state-wide elections. November saw Republicans take over the governor's mansions in Virginia and New Jersey. In January, a cataclysmic shock went across the political world as Republican Scott Brown won the Kennedy Senate seat in Massachusetts. That defeat cost Democrats their supermajority in the Senate, a result applauded by most Americans. Independent voters in these elections resoundingly supported the Republicans, 66-33 in Virginia, 60-30 in New Jersey and 65-34 in Massachusetts, after supporting Obama in 2008.

As the election calendar turns towards the midterms, most analysts are predicting Republican gains of around 25 seats or higher in the House and as many as 7 or 8 in the Senate, leading many to speculate that we could be seeing the landslide of 1994 all over again. Indeed, Stan Greenberg, a top Democratic pollster, acknowledges that his polls are eliciting a feeling of panic as it's beginning to look like that epic election cycle. Indeed, the polling looks remarkably similar. To regain control of Congress, Republicans must flip 40 seats in the House and 10 in the Senate. Senate control is not yet in play. However, top political handicapper Charlie Cook has gone so far as to say it is "very hard to come up with a scenario where Democrats don't lose the House." He added that you could triple the Republican Party's problems and they'd be better than those currently facing Dems. He blames the White House for "fundamental, total miscalculations from the very, very beginning" about the direction to take the country.

Even in our political system, in which change is the only constant, the seismic shift in the political landscape we've witnessed over the last year is remarkable. Cook notes, Democrats dominated Congress for four decades until the Republican Revolution of 1994. Then Republicans held the House for 12 years before being ousted in 2006. That seems like a lifetime compared to the current outlook for Democrats. Says Cook...

The trajectory of this election looks horrific for Democrats. In this kind of environment, days that go by without some "game-changing" development benefiting the GOP in a state or district are the exception, not the rule...

Whether or not Democrats hold onto their House majority by a sliver -- say, five or six seats -- and hold their Senate losses to five seats or so, the fact is that after just four years in power, congressional Democrats are in trouble.

There seems to be a new impatience among the electorate as voters sour on DC and the politicians, for the time being Democrats, who run it. Members of Congress earn the worst honesty and ethics score of any profession tested by Gallup. Voters see very little "we" in the political process and are sending a strong message to Washington that they've had enough of the perpetual dysfunction that grips the city. Eighty-six percent of Americans believe government is broken and 71% give Congress poor ratings. Some blame the President, pointing out that the US is far from ungovernable, while others blame Republicans. We are seeing a new populism, some call it a peasant revolt. In this environment, all incumbents should beware of the widespread sentiment, but Democrats, as the party holding all levers of power, will bear the brunt of voter backlash, just as they did in Massachusetts.

Fortunately for the majority, congressional popularity has little correlation with midterm election results. Unfortunately for Democrats, presidential popularity is of great import. Despite Obama's attempts to reassure fellow Democrats that the "big difference" between 2010 and 1994 is "you've got me," history tells us that the President will only drag his party down in November. No president has ever gained in approval between the beginning of a midterm year and the November elections. While Obama says the "buzz saw"of opposition won't stop him, it may well end the political careers of his friends, leading some to keep their distance.

While the outlook is quite rosy for Republicans, Cook reminds the GOP that, as I wrote in my last post, the voter discontent and outright anger now aimed at Democrats and elevating Republicans can easily turn on the GOP, particularly if we take control of the House and fail to move the country in a positive direction. If, however, Republicans are faithful stewards of voters' trust, we stand to make many more gains in the years to come. In 2012 and 2014, Democrats must defend a combined 43 Senate seats as Republicans defend only 22. The recent electoral imbalance which helped Democrats achieve a short-lived supermajority will afford Republicans an advantage in the next two cycles. This makes the odds of Republicans regaining the Senate majority in the not-to-distant future very good.

As for the elections in our immediate future, Michael Barone, author of "the bible of American politics," sums it all up saying,

What we have here are the makings of an epic party disaster. Whether it comes to pass is still uncertain. But it certainly could.

Will November, nine short (long?) months away, bring an epic disaster for the Democratic Party and see previously laughable Republican dreams realized or will these next months prove as tumultuous and unpredictable as the last, allowing Democrats to mitigate their own impending demise? While the GOP has all the momentum, alarms are sounding much earlier in the cycle than they did in 1994, which gives Democrats time to try a course correction. The smartest analysts in the business see little hope for such a turnaround, but remember, change is the only constant when talking about the individual political sentiments of 200 million unique voters and a political world in which new developments happen not by the week but by the minute. Here's to Republicans capitalizing on Democrat's failures, not just for the sake of renewed power but for the sake of the American people and a more prosperous future. Republicans must stand ready to govern, to bring the real change and progress we so deeply desire.

PG Poll: Put on your political prognosticator hat. Do you thing Republicans will regain control of the House of Representatives this November? How about the Senate by 2012? Vote on the left side of the page and leave your comments below!