This just in: elections matter! Last week, Massachusetts voters went to the polls and sent a message to Washington that shocked the political world. The message sent was in the form of Senator-Elect Scott Brown. A largely unknown state senator, one of only five Republicans in the 40-member body, became the "Scott heard around the world," drastically altering the political landscape in Washington, the presidency of Barack Obama and the course of national policy for years to come, most immediately with regard to health care reform.In what has been cleverly dubbed a "Mass-acre" and many consider the biggest upset in modern political history, Republican Scott Brown defeated Democratic Attorney General Martha Coakley by five points in a state that, just over a year ago, supported Obama by 26 points over John McCain and had not elected a Republican to the U.S. Senate since 1972. Whats more, there are 3 times as many registered Democrats in the state as Republicans! As recently as November, Coakley held a 31 point lead over Brown in the race to replace the late Ted Kennedy in the United States Senate. The seat had been in the Kennedy family almost every year since 1952. Coakley's election was to be nothing more than a formality as no one gave any Republican a snowball's chance in Hell of taking "The Kennedy Seat."
With only three weeks to go before the January 19th special election, all of that changed. With a Rasmussen poll showing Coakley's lead down to only 9, the media began to wonder if the Senate race is Massachusetts was somehow getting closer, and Democrats grew anxious. With a week to go, everyone realized the "people's seat" was up for grabs; with five days to go it was deemed a toss-up. Democrats launched a full court press, investing millions upon millions of dollars in a state everyone had taken for granted. Despite their best efforts to save the sinking ship, Scott Brown was favored on Election Eve. Even Democrats seemed to be breaking for Brown at the last minute.
On January 19, 2010, the seemingly impossible happened in Massachusetts and everyone was left to do a few double takes then try to digest it all, sorting out fact from myth. Democrats, even before the polls closed were pointing fingers at each other, engaging in a self-defeating blame game. For his part, the President blamed the loss on a failure of his own economic plans as well as voter anger and frustration. It was revealed that the NRSC saw the possibility early and had launched a stealth operation to catch the Democrats with their... well, on Christmas vacation. At the end of the day, there were exuberant winners and stunned losers. One of the winners, Brown's pollster Neil Newhouse (a Dukie I might add) wrote a tongue-in-cheek memo to Democrats, IDed the twelve keys to Brown's victory and unpacked the broader lessons of the recent GOP wins to lay the groundwork for continued success in the Midterms.
Democrats on the Hill were meeting even as Massachusettians were still voting, rethinking their entire strategy, trying to chart contingency plans for their health care reform bills which suddenly seemed to be gasping for last breath. The bill on which Obama has spent so much (all?) of his political capital seems to have dragged down everyone in his party. His decision to go all in on health care is beginning to look like a "disastrous gamble." Indeed, exit poll data in MA revealed that health care legislation was the most salient issue for voters last Tuesday. He has since considered paring down his goals for the bill, which Senate leadership says is on the House as moderate Democratic Senators, ready to move on or take a breather, refuse to use reconciliation to pass the measure with only 51 votes. However, putting it on the House may not bear any fruit for Democrats as Pelosi has declared that she does not have the votes to pass the more moderate Senate bill. Meanwhile, a majority of Americans want Democrats to suspend work on the bill and consider alternatives Republicans would support. Nevermind that, Democrats are now attempting to unite around their "last, best hope" for a strictly Democratic overhaul, using reconciliation to alter the Senate bill enough to garner majority support in the House. Despite these last ditch efforts, many observers believe Obama's top legislative priority is truly dead this time. We shall see.
Who could have imagined that exactly one year after millions of Americans flocked to DC to witness, with fervent hope and excitement, the historic inauguration of our new President, Republicans would be the ones hardly able to contain their jubilance? On that day last winter, President Obama enjoyed sky-high approval among the electorate, but a year is an eternity in politics. Of Democrats' year, Charlie Cook says, "their celebration has turned into a nightmare." In a few short, tumultuous months, a man who once seemed immortal has quickly come down to Earth as he and his party have overreached in their expansion of government and pursuit of a liberal policy agenda which runs counter to the will of a center-right nation. And yes, this downward trajectory for the President, which began in earnest over the summer, was of enormous consequence in Massachusetts this past Tuesday. The President made a last minute visit to the state, a risky gamble, in a desperate attempt to avert political catastrophe for his party. This visit had no tangible impact on the election results. While Obama excited the base, he was unable to move the dial in Coakley's favor. This from a man who regularly brought adoring supporters to tears throughout the 2008 presidential campaign, winning over Democrats and Independents alike.
The Obama magic has left the building. After failing to inspire voters and avoid embarrassing defeats in Virginia, New Jersey and now Massachusetts, it is abundantly clear that the electorate, particularly Independents, have rapidly soured on the President. This is why politics is so fascinating and exciting! No matter how strongly and decisively expressed at a moment in time, individual voter sentiments and collective national mood are stubbornly dynamic. Many voted for "change" in 2008 but have been disheartened by the slow progress on some fronts and the type of change pursued on others. Voters are looking for results when they cast their ballots, and if they aren't seeing the kind of results they hoped for, they'll be back in the ballot box before you know it to vent their discontent. Thank God for democracy!
Americans prefer checks and balances in Washington, each political party acting to temper the excesses of the other. If voters sense that the party to which they have entrusted the levers of power is overreaching, irresponsibly wielding the power granted it for its own narrow, idealogical objectives, those same voters will snatch it back, or at least, as in the case of Massachusetts, ensure that the power goes unchecked no longer. By installing Scott Brown as the 41st Republican senator, voters in the bluest of blue states single-handedly broke the Democrats' filibuster-proof supermajority, putting the emergency breaks on the leftist agenda which Republicans were previously powerless to thwart on their own.
Let's not forget one of the key truths realized in Massachusetts and already noted in relation to the President. A few months is an eternity in politics, and neither party is immune to the shifting winds. The thumpings Republicans took in 2006 and 2008, after seeing George W. Bush elected to a second-term only 2 years before, are still fresh memories. The mood of the national electorate could hardly be moving in a more favorable direction for the GOP, which currently holds all of the momentum heading into the Midterms as Democrats have badly damaged their brand, but pride cometh before the fall. It would be a fatal mistake for Republicans to begin taking the favor of voters for granted and assuming the inevitability of the monumental Republican wave which appears to be taking shape towards November 2010. When I asked a veteran GOP aide in the House how Hill Republicans were feeling in the aftermath of Tuesday's astonishing result, he said all were thrilled but not taking anything for granted or resting on their laurels.
There is much work left to rebuild the Republican brand and, much more importantly, put the country back on a prosperous course. Republicans must do all they can with their newfound influence on the Hill to lead a course correction for the good of all Americans, Republicans and Democrats. The same independent voters who came out against Democrats in Massachusetts will have very little patience with obstructionism for obstructionism's sake over the coming months. There are fundamental differences in principle on which Republicans should not waiver, but when prudent for the country, the two parties must learn to work together toward shared objectives such as economic recovery. One thing that became clear this past Tuesday is that voters in every state, even the bluest, have had enough and want a change... change, where have we heard that before?
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