Merry Christmas!!

I wish all of my readers a very Merry Christmas and Happy New Year 2010! May you enjoy a wonderful time with family and look forward to the many blessings a new year will bring.

~Pearce

2009 Roundup: Health Care, Afghanistan & The Economy

UPDATE 12/24/2009: The United States Senate has passed its version of the Democrats' health care bill on a 60-39, strict party-line vote which took place Christmas Eve morning. Democratic leaders in the House and Senate will now work to merge the Senate bill with the much more liberal House bill. Senators Lieberman (I-CT) and Nelson (D-NE) have vowed to veto the final bill if it moves left of the version they supported this morning. With their more moderate interest on one side and disenchanted House liberals on the other, the Conferencing of the two bills promises more drama, deal-making and a still uncertain fate for President Obama's top legislative priority.

ORIGINAL POST: As the pre-teens draw to a close, let's look at the big issues dominating our collective consciousness and political discourse, issues that set the stage for the 2nd decade of the 21st Century and will determine the course of politics and the balance of power for years to come. 2009 began with a monumental event in history as America saw the first black citizen assume the office of the presidency. Most Americans met this milestone with enormous hope, hope that far out-sized any one man's ability, even the most powerful man in the world. Hope has turned to frustration as President Obama has struggled to unite political factions, quickly repair the economy or pass his landmark legislation, health care reform, to this point. The President has three years to recover; Democrats on the Hill have 10 months. Both have seen their fortunes turn rather dramatically since sweeping wins in November of 2008.

Democrats' health care reform legislation remains bogged down in flying sausage, though an end is potentially within site as Democrats desperately fight to give Obama a landmark 1st-year achievement and pass a bill before Christmas. I've written 8 posts on health care with a good bit of background and plenty of my views on the issue. In sum, health care reform is of critical importance to the longterm sustainability and decency of the country we all love, BUT, unlike Americans, all health care reform is not created equal and is not by definition a positive step forward for the nation. Health care reform which fails to address the fundamental issues underlying our health care crisis of costs, quality & coverage and only adds more people, programs and taxpayer dollars to a quickly failing system will only exacerbate the problem and send us faster into the abyss. This type of legislation is indeed far worse than doing nothing. This is not to say that all Democrat ideas embodied in their bills fit this profile, but those which do are a grave concern. Indeed there is room for hope that with some of the pilot projects in the Senate bill aimed at controlling costs, current legislation will be a first step in a long process of getting the system under control. Forgive me for being skeptical and believing Democrats have put the cart before the horse, expanding coverage with very little real effort to first control exploding costs. With all of that said, let's see where we are with 17 days remaining in 2009.

For months now, public opinion has been trending against Democrats' health care reform, with no momentum following passage in the House. The latest CNN poll shows 61% in opposition to the bill. Also, a majority disapprove of the President's handling of the issue. Americans' believe health care coverage is not the government's responsibility and that their costs will increase. They think it is the wrong time for health care reform in light of the economy, unemployment and the growing deficit, which most believe these bills will increase. Perhaps surprisingly, much opposition is from the left.

This has made health care reform an excruciatingly tenuous issue for Democrats facing voters in only 10 months. The fact that they are sitting on a very different political timeline than that of President Obama is causing much concern. These lawmakers are trying to figure out how a vote for health reform against the will of voters will be anything less than a death sentence for their political careers. Despite being the Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid is in

more political trouble over health care than most members of his caucus as his state stands firmly against his bill. One idea is to push benefits up to 2010 in order to show tangible, positive results before voters head to the polls. Stu Rothenberg wonders Democrats are trying to walk off a cliff as those most likely to vote in 2010 are against the Democrats' reform.

The bills passed by the House and the one currently at play in the Senate are being decried by smart observers and activists on the right and left. The left complains that the bills do not contain a "robust" public option, aka quick trojan horse to single payer care, that they still leave millions uninsured and that the House bill restricts government subsidies of abortions. The right is incensed by the expansion of government control over patients' decisions and treatments, the fact that the bills bend the cost curve up instead of down as confirmed by the director of the Congressional Budget Office and the CMMS, the increase in individual insurance premiums, that they fail to block illegal immigrants from receiving coverage, that millions will lose their coverage, that they include potentially unconstitutional individual mandates, and that the Senate bill slashes Medicare, an arguably hypocritical stance. Some Democrats and liberals are also raising alarms over the costs of the bills and demanding the ban on taxpayer funds for abortion. These bills indeed send several of the President's promises down the river.

The dean of Harvard Medical School penned a must-read piece in the WSJ saying he gives the current bills a failing grade. In Dean Flier's words,

Our health-care system suffers from problems of cost, access and quality, and needs major reform. Tax policy drives employment-based insurance; this begets overinsurance and drives costs upward while creating inequities for the unemployed and self-employed. A regulatory morass limits innovation. And deep flaws in Medicare and Medicaid drive spending without optimizing care...

The various bills do deal with access by expanding Medicaid and mandating subsidized insurance at substantial cost—and thus addresses an important social goal. However, there are no provisions to substantively control the growth of costs or raise the quality of care. So the overall effort will fail to qualify as reform...

In discussions with dozens of health-care leaders and economists, I find near unanimity of opinion that, whatever its shape, the final legislation that will emerge from Congress will markedly accelerate national health-care spending rather than restrain it. Likewise, nearly all agree that the legislation would do little or nothing to improve quality or change health-care's dysfunctional delivery system...

In effect, while the legislation would enhance access to insurance, the trade-off would be an accelerated crisis of health-care costs and perpetuation of the current dysfunctional system—now with many more participants. This will make an eventual solution even more difficult. Ultimately, our capacity to innovate and develop new therapies would suffer most of all.

As Harry Reid frantically tries to round of the 60 votes needed to pass his health care bill, even inserting $100 million dollars for Louisiana to get Landrieu's support, Joe Lieberman has become the biggest thorn in his side. Lieberman was one of the Democratic Senators (yes, I know he's technically an Independent following his 2006 loss in the Connecticut Democratic primary, but he caucuses with Democrats) to demand scrapping the public option from Reid's bill. They succeeded. Yesterday, Lieberman announced that he would vote against the current bill, due to its expansion of Medicare (a "compromise" many, including the Washington Post, believe is a faster route to single-payer than the public option). Democrat Ben Nelson is also against the compromise. With only 60 votes in his caucus, including Lieberman, and no Republicans likely to support the bill, Reid has zero room for error. Politico is reporting that Obama has told Reid to give Lieberman what he wants (a report the White House denies), but Reid is holding on as the Senate is in hurry up and wait mode for the CBO score of the latest compromise deal due in the next day or two. Meanwhile, in the House, Speaker Pelosi proclaims she is ready to do "almost anything" to pass reform this year, setting up a potential showdown with her liberal wing who won't like the watered down Senate version. Needless to say, these disputes among Democrats pose a grave threat to the self-imposed imperative of passing reform in 2009. Obama has summoned the entire Senate Democratic caucus to the White House tomorrow for a meeting at this "make-or-break" moment for his health care overhaul.

In the end, as David Brooks says, health care reform rests on a values question, our values individually and as a nation. Their is no clear right answer. It is a "brutal choice." No one in this debate is evil or selfish. With all of our similarities as fellow citizens we have different values. That is as it should be, and those values inform our stance on health care reform. As Brooks explains the dichotomy,

Reform would make us a more decent society, but also a less vibrant one. It would ease the anxiety of millions at the cost of future growth. It would heal a wound in the social fabric while piling another expensive and untouchable promise on top of the many such promises we’ve already made. America would be a less youthful, ragged and unforgiving nation, and a more middle-aged, civilized and sedate one...

We all have to decide what we want at this moment in history, vitality or security. We can debate this or that provision, but where we come down will depend on that moral preference. Don’t get stupefied by technical details. This debate is about values.

The other major story as we conclude 2009 is President Obama's bold decision to send 30,000 more American troops into combat in Afghanistan. Obama rightly sees Afghanistan as imperative for our security. As he put it in March, “This will not be quick, nor easy. But we must never forget: This is not a war of choice. This is a war of necessity. ... This is fundamental to the defense of our people.” Everything is easier said than done. At West Point, the President turned those strong words into strong action, much to the relief and pleasure of conservatives, who feared weakness, and to the dismay of many liberals. Indeed, on Afghanistan, the President is dealing with reverse coalitions. The political peril in the President's decision makes it all the more admirable.

The President has tried his much discussed soft, outstretched hand approach and against challenges, reality and limited success, has been forced to move on to plan B. His decision process on Afghanistan was long, laborious and, to some, amounted to dithering. It was clouded with leaks and angry conflict between the White House and its own commanders. However, he did come to a firm decision and is moving forward. This President operates in "analytic mode," dispassionate but serious and thoughtful.

In the next sentence after announcing the troop buildup, the President stated that troops would begin withdrawing in July of 2011, an obvious concession to his base. His advisors differ on how firm that date is, but we know now this President is serious about and taking ownership of this war. I, therefore, have little concern that he will cut and run in July of 2011. He said nothing about how steep said draw-down would be.

In Oslo last week, President Obama accepted the Nobel Peace Prize. He used the opportunity to give a poignant defense of war. This was no doubt jarring to his immediate audience but encouraging to conservatives at home who have worried this man is too naive and idealistic to lead in our world in which, as he stated, "evil does exist." We learn a lot about Obama the man through his speeches and some see the most recent as a move to the center, a place of strength for an American president, and a foreign policy shift as Obama bows to reality.

The stark reality is that terrorists dreaming of and plotting for the destruction of America are still not tired. We must fight on, steadfast in our commitment to freedom and security. To prevail we must have strong allies, a major question mark in Afghanistan. I hope and pray Obama's decision was right. I hope he found the perfect balance between our national security, his most solemn duty, and the risk to our brave men and women, our most precious treasures. Obama can win in Afghanistan, and if he remains firm in his resolve, conservatives and Americans at large will stand behind him through thick and thin, all the way to victory.

The economy, the one issue in politics that voters think about every single day, every time they pull out their wallets and every time they think about the future. The economy is the top issue for voters now as it has been for most of 2009. With unemployment rising to 10.2 percent in October and the '09 deficit topping $1.4 trillion, Americans are understandably worried and skiddish. The U-6 statistic tells us that a more accurate look at total economic dislocation is 17%, which includes underemployment. For Democrats, that means it's time to put jobs first or risk enraging the struggling electorate. With every passing day, the "rubble" of the economy is increasingly at Obama's feet, and Americans expect him to fix it. Interestingly, Democrats are more likely to be unemployed than Republicans. Blacks are worst hit, with 35 percent of the young unemployed.

While there are green shoots in the economy, recovery is scarcely touching jobs. The White House is doing its best to convince voters that the stimulus package has "created or saved" thousands of jobs, but watchdogs have concluded those advertised numbers are inflated, inaccurate, temporary or just made up. Now, finally, the White House seems to be turning its attention to the deficit, hopefully in earnest. The wave of debt payments facing the government have the potential of crippling the economy, again. Voters rightly see deficit reduction as the top budget priority for Washington, well above health care. At the same time, voters worry the government will do too much for the economy, making the situation worse and hampering recovery. Only 23% of Americans trust the federal government to do what is right. 76% prefer a free market economy, and Republicans are now trusted more than Democrats to fix the economy. Mitt Romney, an almost certain presidential candidate in 2012, has outlined his plan.

Americans need economic recovery. We need a renewal of "moral materialism" and the manic energy which has taken America from the banks of Plymoth to the pinnacle of prosperity, power and influence. We've survived the shocks of a year ago, but people are truly struggling and having a hard time seeing the light at the end of the tunnel. We must unleash market power and individual innovation to ensure a bottom up recovery for America, quick, strong and enduring.

2009 LEFTOVERS

Check out the Top 10 Everything of 2009.

As you enjoy the many college football bowl games this holiday season, think about whether or not the government should intervene to push for a playoff to replace the BCS system. Principled conservatives believe this idea, by a Texas Republican, should "draw a 15-yard penalty for unnecessary roughness to the idea of limited government."

On Tiger, how utterly disappointing. Read Bill Simmons' piece on the "zoo."

As far as views on Christmas across the country, 76% believe religious symbols should be allowed on public land, 72% prefer "Merry Christmas" to 'Happy Holidays" and 77% say they've been nice this year. I'm with the majorities!

As we move into decade 2 of the 21st century, we're witnessing the end of the email era as Twitter is changing the way we live.

Consider giving cash or gift cards this year. It's better for the economy.

Finally, I'm very proud of Raleigh-Durham, NC for being ranked the smartest city in America! Let's Go Duke! And Carolina is pretty smart too.

Have a Merry Christmas & Happy New Year!!

Seeya in 2010! Midterm elections anyone?!

Independent Swing: GOP Sweeps Big Races

On November 3, 2009, the Republican Resurgence began. In two races billed as potential bellwethers of political fortunes in the 2010 midterms and watched for signals of the prevailing political winds, the GOP scored enormous victories in two states, Virginia and New Jersey, controlled by Democrats for the last eight years. Debate is fierce over how much, or little, the two local governor's races truly mean on a national scale, but, whatever the extent of their significance, they were bad news for the Democratic Party and the White House as Independents, who loved Democrats in recent years swung hard to the GOP.

Many saw the resounding defeats of the Democratic candidates as a referendum on President Obama, more specifically on his liberal, big-government policies at which much of the country is bristling. Despite Obama winning Virginia by 6 and New Jersey by 15 one year ago, the White House political machine has put forward its best effort at defying logic and claiming that these major defeats in no way reflect on prevailing views of the President and his policies. What they cannot deny is that these elections proved Obama's inability to transfer his own magic in any tangible way to other Democratic candidates. Despite campaigning with Corzine in New Jersey three times and with Deeds in Virginia twice, attempts to leverage his influence in their favor, "Obama surge voters" stayed home, almost all of them. Obama's name will not be at the top of the ballot again until 2012, and if these trends hold, it will be a very long 3 years for Democrats between now and then.

While most voters told exit pollsters that Obama was not a factor in their vote, the policy path he has charted in Washington has been responsible for the backlash against Democrats, particularly among Independents. In Virginia, Obama won Independents only one year ago by one point, McDonnell won them by 31, a shocking 32 point swing! In New Jersey, Obama won Independents by 4, Christie by 27, a 31 points swing! Independents in the first 9 months of Obama's presidency have fled the Democratic party in mass.

Another key segment of voters in Obama's historic win was suburbanites. These voters, like Independents, which many of them are, swung hard to the Republican candidates in both Virginia and New Jersey. What's more, seniors strongly supported McDonnell, by 18, and Christie, by 15. Of voters in Virginia who identified the economy of their chief concern, McDonnell won by 14, another ominous sign for the President and Democrats. Young voters, who are challenging for both parties, actually supported McDonnell. Virginia, a swing state in 2008, swung hard back to the GOP as the Democrats' coalition went into shambles, and the ugly truth for Obama is that he actually hurt, rather than helped Deeds.

The White House may have turned a blind eye to the Republican victories, but Democrats on the Hill realized there was a strong message in them getting "walloped" and began doing some soul searching. For Democrats who cared to pay attention, these results were a wake-up call. They are "feeling angst over 2010" when they are at the mercy of voters across the country. They have been forced into a stark realization that it ain't 2008 anymore. You would expect this to make them quite a bit more cautious on the Obama agenda. Indeed, some Democrats admitted, "I should be worried," and begun rethinking support of the liberal agenda. They would be crazy not to.

Occurring almost exactly one year after Obama and down ballot Dems thumped Republicans for the second straight cycle, these landmark victories offered the GOP enormous hope for a much brighter future. Republican voters proved "fired up and ready to go storm the ballot boxes" which points to great success in the approaching midterms where turnout is the name of the game. Republicans are learning valuable lessons from these victories by looking back at the successful strategies employed. McDonnell, who is already fielding questions about a future in the While House, ran on the Republican middle. His conservative bonafides unquestioned, he focused his campaign like a laser beam on kitchen table issues of jobs, the economy and transportation. This is the model for Republican candidates in the coming cycles.

According to Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, Obama was not watching the returns on Election Night, and Pelosi had the audacity to say "we won last night." Perhaps they should smell the GOP roses which swept over them and start heeding the clear and poignant message from the American people, slow down and back off, or pay in 2010 and 2012. These races demolished the great realignment myth of 2008. Conservatism in strong in American, and the more brazen Democrats continue to be with their liberal policies, the higher the building GOP tide will rise and the deeper their losses will be in coming years.

Election Day 2009!!

Election Day 2009 is finally here, and the few key races around the country are providing plenty of drama and excitement! While commentators warn against seeing results in Virginia, New Jersey or New York as bellwethers of what 2010 will hold for the two parties, sweeping conclusions will be drawn as many will see the races, 364 days after the historic election of Barack Obama, as a referendum of his first 9 months in office. With one of the races in the bag for the GOP, focus has turned to a nail-biter in New Jersey and an unusually dramatic Congressional contest in New York. The overall outlook is still foggy on Election Day as I and other political junkies stay glued to the latest polls for any hint of 11th hour momentum for the candidates.

Republicans will see wins in any of the three as a rejection of the Democratic agenda as Obama was victorious in both states and New York's 23rd district in 2008. Democratic losses, the GOP line goes, should spook Democrats in Congress who will face voters in conservative or swing districts next year, making them more timid about supporting Obama and Pelosi's signature liberal initiatives such as health care reform and cap & trade legislation. This will almost certainly prove true given that politicians seek to cover their own hide first, even when that effort puts them in conflict with party leadership. These Democrats will not be anxious to walk the proverbial plank for Obama if he proves unable to turnout the voters who elevated him to the presidency without his name on the ballot. Without a doubt, intensity is now solidly on the side of the GOP, just as it was for Democrats in 2006 & 2008 capitalizing on widespread discontentment with President Bush.

The Virginia Governor's race is absolutely over as the Republican candidate, Bob McDonnell, has opened up a commanding lead over Democrat Creigh Deeds. Given my work on the race, this victory will be especially rewarding. For proof that this one is a lost cause for the Democrats, look no further than the White House. Over a week ago the administration cranked up the CYA machine and began throwing Deeds under the bus for ignoring their wisdom from on high, even before Obama made his final stop with the candidate. The truth of the matter is that Creigh presented no concrete plans and represents a party that is ramming government down people's throats, rubbing all Republicans and most independents the wrong way, especially in Virginia as those swing voters "flock" to McDonnell. As PG friend, Curt Anderson, sarcastically wrote in Politico, Deeds' loss had nothing to do with the president's 25-point drop in job approval, promise.

On Election Day, McDonnell has a substantial enthusiasm gap and money on his side. With the "North Stars" lining up solidly behind the Republican, the only remaining question in this race is how soundly McDonnell will wallop Deeds and how much of a drag the lackluster Deeds campaign will be on down-ballot Democrats running for seats in the House of Delegates. Today will undoubtedly end in a GOP landslide in the Commonwealth, a state Obama won by 7 points one year ago. My latest involvement in the race was in the creation and writing of DiscoverDeeds.com, a website highlighting the DEEDSaster that would be a Deeds governorship. Check out the site, sign up and join the Facebook group!

Oh New Jersey... In years past, New Jersey has given hope to Republicans only to dash it in the end. This scenario could play out again as incumbent Governor Jon Corzine has spent his fortune tearing down Chris Christie, his Republican challenger, in order to compensate for his own dismal approval in the state. This negative effort has been effective in mounting a major Corzine comeback; however, don't confuse this with improvement in Corzine's standing in voters' eyes. He has simply brought Cristie down to his low level while not budging himself.

The X-factor in this race is independent candidate Chris Daggett who has polled as highly as 20 percent and is taking some of the vast anti-Corzine vote away from Christie. Daggett could well play spoiler today, but with 68 percent of voters believing he has no chance of winning, Republicans hope the historic trend of third party candidates under-performing the polls at the ballot box will hold true, handing Christie the victory.

On Election Day, this race is a pure toss-up with polling all over the map in the final days. On average, Christie is up by 1 point, well within the margin of error, but giving the GOP hope in the final hours in a reliably blue state which handed Obama a 15 point victory last November. It all comes down to the ground game today where the historically strong Democratic organization meets the intensity expressed by disenfranchised Republicans. Unfortunately, the outcome may remain a mystery late into tomorrow morning and beyond, recount anyone?

What a dramatic finish we've had in New York's 23rd Congressional district. This race is a special election triggered by Obama's appointment of long-time Republican Congressman John McHugh to be Secretary of the Army. The X-factor, and eventual front-runner, in this race has been Conservative candidate Doug Hoffman. Republican county chairmen selected liberal Dede Scozzafava as the Republican nominee to face Democrat Bill Owens. From the outset, the conservative base was unsatisfied with the choice and began to rally around Hoffman who had unsuccessfully pursued the Republican nomination. Hoffman went from a footnote to a serious candidate with an endorsement and enormous financial assist by the anti-tax Club for Growth.

In mid-October, observers started to wonder if Hoffman could actually win as polls began showing him neck-and-neck with the Democrat, outpacing Scozzafava. Over the last 10 days, high profile Republicans including Sarah Palin and Tim Pawlenty, both potential Presidential nominees in 2012, started a wave of support by lending their endorsements. By midweek, the talk was of a more likely "miracle" win by the third party candidate, and commentators were trying to figure out what it all meant.

On Saturday, the race took a crazy turn as Scozzafava, noticing her paltry poll number, dropped out of the race leaving only Hoffman and the Democrat, Owens. The RNC immediately professed full support for Hoffman, recognizing that the base had sent a strong message. Upon hearing of her withdrawal, team Obama jumped into high gear seeking a Scozzafava endorsement for the Democrat. They succeeded as Dede gave her party the ole birdy in endorsing Bill Owens with only hours remaining in the race. Even still, conservatives see a Hoffman victory on the horizon. However, with the unprecedented theatrics of the last 72 hours, NY-23 can only be considered a toss-up as polls open in the North Country.

The results in Virginia will be known early tonight; the other two races could keep us up late. In 2004, I welcomed a nice birthday present in the form of W Still the President; in 2006, I was up until the sun rose over Scotland with a less rosy outlook for Republicans back here in the US; in 2008, I stood in Salisbury, NC taking in with sadness Elizabeth Dole's concession speech. Tonight, I look forward to celebrating in Richmond with Bob McDonnell. And, if the wind is blowing just the right way, I'll be celebrating a Republican/Conservative sweep up and down the East Coast!

For real time returns tomorrow night, follow me on Twitter. I'll be tweeting up a storm from Bob's victory party. Here's to another exciting Election Day and a resurgence of Republican enthusiasm and conservative principles with which to meet the enormous challenges facing our great nation.

Health Care Progress & Approaching Elections

Despite major headwinds, the Democrats' Health Care/Insurance reform bill has made progress on Capitol Hill in the last couple of weeks as Max Baucus' Senate Finance Committee passed its version of the legislation out of committee. It is now one of five versions or reform circulating on the Hill, however, it is by far the most important and most likely to be the vehicle for ObamaCare. Baucus' bill, actually only "conceptual language" when released is the product of months of bipartisan negotiations between 3 Democrats and a dwindling group of moderate Republicans. In the end, Democrats were left with only one Republican aye vote in committee, Maine's Olympia Snowe, a very moderate and independent, thus exceedingly powerful, Senator.

The bill drew fire from both sides of the aisle. Republicans, despite some limited moderation, believe the bill still takes too much power from patients, giving it to government, and costs too much for individuals, families and the country, over $2 trillion by some analysis, sending soaring deficits higher. Liberals, meanwhile, don't believe the bill goes far enough in the direction of government run health care. Both sides regret that the bill falls far short of covering all Americans. There are many problems with this piece of "conceptual language," but the fact that it has been panned by both sides could be a signal that it is approaching some middle ground on the issue, often a positive position from which to launch major reform. I do not support the bill in its current form, but it is a substantive improvement from the more government, more spending, more taxes, more debt approach favored by Pelosi. Unfortunately, given that relative to the other 4 bills this is the moderate alternative, the final bill voted on in the Senate and the product out of the Conference Committee which will merge that bill with a more liberal House bill, will almost certainly be a greater afront to individual liberty and fiscal responsibility.

Public support of health care reform has dropped slightly with the committee passage of the bill. Only 42% of Americans support reform while 54% oppose according to Rasmussen. Even more, 56%, believe health care costs will go up if ObamaCare passes Congress, a rejection of one of Obama's primary justifications for reform. More broadly, Americans by a factor of 2 to 1 believe Government is doing too much, too fast. As for the Baucus Bill specifically, even Democratic Senators recognize it as a "big, big tax" on the middle class, a breach of President Obama's explicit campaign promise to not raise taxes on that group. All bills include an individual mandate, assailed by Republicans and opposed by Americans, which will result in young adults paying a big share of the cost. While the public option was left out of the Baucus bill due to broad opposition, some fear a trap by which it will make it's way into the legislation. Polling has varied of late on the Public Option with one poll showing a sample of doctors favoring it if alongside private care and a new WaPo poll showing support increasing.

The Baucus bill moves closer to fulfilling Obama's "Dime Standard" on reform, but it is still enormously costly, especially in the "out years" of the second decade. Democrats got creative in concealing the real costs from Americans and the CBO by staggering revenue and costs by several years. Many also believe the reform will be bad news for workers as higher costs on employers will be passed to employees. In addition, the bill will cut Medicare benefits for seniors according to the CBO, contrary to what Obama promises. There are other problematic elements hiding in the bill as well. Americans' concerns on these and other aspects of the bill are especially poignant to red state Democrats who are weary of spurning their constituents in supporting ObamaCare. Two-thirds of Americans say that how their member votes on health care will be a major factor in their vote next year.

Let's not forget one of several grand fallacy's in this push for reform. We are going to care for more people with less doctors. No matter how many ways you twist it, this will necessarily and absolutely lead to rationing of health care. The answer is not to turn a blind eye to the uninsured. It is to provide additional incentives and remove the disincentives present in ObamaCare for our best and brightest to join the medical profession in greater numbers. Getting serious about tort reform, despite trial lawyers being one of Democrats' most loyal voting and donor blocks, would be a good start. The shortage of primary care doctors in this country, approaching a crisis, will be a major obstacle to Obama's ideals and would worsen the impact of his reform. Worse, 45% of doctors say they would consider quitting if Congress passes the current health care overhaul!

In the President's lofty rhetoric and grand, counter-intuitive and even nonsensical proclaimations about health care reform, he "implies, misdirects and misleads." To say he lies is too strong, but he is less than honest, forthright and transparent with the American people in his frantic push for reform. Why? He expects, and has seen, that the more voters understand the necessary implications of ObamaCare, the more they fear and oppose it. Only 43% approve of how the President has handled the debate, with a majority disapproving. Perhaps for this reason, he is taking a "hiatus" on the issue so that he can "come back stronger." If only Obama and his Democratic allies would find strength by laying out honestly the enormous challenges facing the system and truly seek a bipartisan solution, many Republicans and Americans would seize the opportunity to collaborate on and get behind reform that is fundamental, critical and historic. Is there still a chance for this kind of progress on health care? Yes, if all involved, think more about Americans' future and less about their own political ambition.

Two major elections which could prove to be bellwethers of electoral successes to come, particularly for Republicans, are turning into the final stretch. The races for Virginia and New Jersey governor have only 12 days remaining and all sides have ratcheted up the intensity. For the GOP the races have been on divergent tracks of late. In Virginia, Bob McDonnell, the GOP nominee, is closing strong and has seen his lead in the polls more than double in the last month with the latest showing him up 19 points over Democrat Creigh Deeds. Meanwhile, in New Jersey the Republican nominee, Chris Christie, has seen his standing slide, not because incumbent Governor Jon Corzine has gained favorability, New Jersey voters still dislike him immensely, but because an Independent, Chris Daggett is gaining a larger share of the anti-Corzine vote. As a result, the race is in a dead heat in its final days. With Corzine hitting a ceiling around 40 percent despite his many fat jokes, the identity of New Jersey's next governor hinges on how many voters pull the lever for Daggett. Traditionally, Independent candidates under-perform their poll standing on election day as voters decide against throwing away their vote.

Bob McDonnell has expanded his lead in Virginia as voters have grown weary of Deeds' incessant negative attacks and his inability to articulate clear plans for confronting the Commonwealth's many challenges. The slide has led Deeds to point blame at "what's going on in Washington," not a good idea when it's the Obama voters you most need to give you a fighting chance. Those voters are unenthusiastic about Deeds to say the least while Bob is reaping the benefits of a "ginned-up GOP" who will likely turn out in force, tipping the expected turnout on November 3rd decidedly in his favor. Stu Rothenberg has responded to the movement in the polls by moving the race from toss-up to lean takeover for Republicans. Although Obama will be campaigning for Deeds this coming Tuesday, the White House has stepped back from the race somewhat so as to not tie itself to the sinking ship that is the Deeds campaign. Down ballot Democratic candidates are pursuing the same strategy of deserting Deeds as the campaign comes to a close. Even more worrisome for Democrats, polling on the race may point to trouble around the country in next year's midterms, including a precipitous drop in black voter turnout from the high of 2008.

Is is of course not over until the fat lady sings and the last votes are counted, but a Deeds Comeback, which Democrats still try to envision, saying it would be the "greatest comeback in the history of American politics," looks less and less likely with every passing day, especially with McDonnell enjoying a 2:1 cash advantage in the home stretch. For Deeds to snatch the Governor's mansion from McDonnell's grasp, he will need both the "sleeping giants" of the Obama surge to rise up and a major game changer to erase McDonnell's substantial lead among Independents before it is too late. Unfortunately for Deeds and Democrats, it probably already is.

The Rising GOP Tide: Republican Gains on the Horizon

After two disastrous elections in 2006 and 2008, the Republican Party has found a pulse and looks poised to comeback with major gains in upcoming cycles, beginning with the two gubernatorial races less than a month away and next year's midterm congressional races. The tides that were strongly at the backs of Democrats in the last two elections are quickly shifting direction and portent much greater GOP fortunes. The extent of the GOP revival is unclear, but gains are inevitable. American politics is "reliably cyclical," and we love a good comeback story. Therefore, 2010 will be an exciting, perhaps monumental, election cycle.

To make sure Republicans are motivated, Vice President Joe Biden, who likes to say things, announced that a Republican takeover of the House in 2010 would be the "end of the road" for the President's agenda. Ironically, the President's job approval is one of the factors pointing to GOP gains. Democrats have picked up 54 seats in the past four years to establish a substantial majority, but trouble is brewing. Republicans would need to pick up 41 seats to regain the majority, a sweep that was thought impossible, but is now not entirely inconceivable. Charlie Cook believes the "situation has slipped completely out of control for President Obama and Congressional Democrats." Stu Rothenberg sees 70 Democratic-held seats as competitive compared to only 34 currently in GOP hands. He is predicting a GOP pickup of between 20 and 30 seats. Forty-nine Democrats represent districts won by John McCain in 2008. It is important to note that the President's party typically loses a number of House seats in his first midterm election, but 2010 is shaping up for greater than expected gains for Republicans as the party targets 80 seats, including some of entrenched Democrats. The upcoming midterm is being compared to 2006 election in which Democrats gained 30 seats as well as control of the House and the Republican Revolution of 1994. All experts see double-digit Dem losses in 2010 at a minimum, with statistical forecasting predicting at least 15.

The Senate will also play host to a number of top-notch races in 2010 as Democrats may struggle to retain their 60 vote supermajority. There are some notable Democratic senators who have proven extremely vulnerable as we approach the midterm elections. The most prominent is Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, who, in the latest polls out of Nevada, is trailing his top challenger by 10 points. Also behind in the polls is embattled veteran senator Chris Dodd and party-switching Arlen Specter. Democrats from blue-states seem to be ignoring the fact that their party has a problem and are putting red-state democrats in potentially perilous positions. Even members not up until 2012 are concerned and raising money years early. In North Carolina, incumbent Republican Richard Burr is vulnerable but leads potential opponents, including Elaine Marshall, by double digits. There will also be a number of additional gubernatorial elections around the country in 2010, where incumbent difficulties are signaling trouble for Democrats.

Fortunately, political junkies, and especially Republican voters, don't have to wait until November 2010 for the excitement of a comeback. Virginia and New Jersey always elect governors one year after presidential elections. This gives these races disproportionate significance and earns them the focus of the political chattering class as well as the national parties and

White House, despite their "hyper-localism." In Virginia, Republican Attorney General Bob McDonnell is leading the race against State Senator Creigh Deeds, in a rematch of the razor-thin 2005 attorney general race, that some see as a model for a GOP comeback. In New Jersey, the Republican Chris Christie is also leading incumbent Jon Corzine. Both races are proving daunting for Democrats.

Living in Virginia and working in Republican politics, I've enjoyed a first-hand view of the gubernatorial race, and the McDonnell campaign in particular. In the last 8 elections, Virginians have elected the candidate from the opposite party of the President. Republicans are hoping the "presidential jinx" continues this year. McDonnell opened up a 15 point lead in the race during the summer, but negative, backward looking attacks by Deeds have closed the gap somewhat as election day approaches. However, Deeds stumbled mightily as he was caught on camera talking out of both sides of his mouth, incoherently, on raising taxes. The video, particularly his condescending snap at a female reporter has gone viral and is now featured in a major ad buy for McDonnell in Northern Virginia. Also, with Obama's popularity now upside down in Virginia, it is unclear whether he would help or hurt Deeds, who is facing a major enthusiasm deficit and is struggling to motivate NOVA liberals, in the closing weeks. McDonnell now leads by an average of 7.3 with four weeks to go. In New Jersey, where the race has also tightened, Christie leads by 3.8. (Note: Follow RCP polling charts on both races at the bottom of the PG Blog.)

It's not too early to look a bit further ahead to the 2012 presidential election in which President Barack Obama, who has been on the defensive quite a bit, will have to again face voters and, perhaps, pay a price for his rapid move towards further government intervention which has angered a large segment of Americans and dramatically hurt his standing in the polls, leading to major losses among Independents who now disapprove of the President. If I had to make a prediction today, it would be that one of the two men pictured on the left, Mitt Romney and Tim Pawlenty, will challenge Obama for the White House. These are two of the most influential Republicans, and both are making clear moves towards a presidential run, the second for Romney who came up short in 2008.

Minnesota Governor Tim Pawlenty, called the gut of the party, announced in early summer that he would not seek reelection, a move understood as allowing him to focus on a presidential campaign. He has already traveled to eight states in recent weeks, assembled a campaign team and started a PAC. Meanwhile, Romney's 2012 team is poised for another run. Some commentators are going so far as to predict that Romney will be our next president; he is after all "next-in-line." However, in addition to Romney and Pawlenty, there are other formidable candidates who may mix up the field, including rising star John Thune and grassroots conservative favorites Sarah Palin and Mike Huckabee.

A major voting blog Republicans must better attract in 2012 is young voters, aged 18 to 29, which Obama won 66-32. The GOP challenge to win those critical voters back will be a major storyline in the next three years as the campaigns heat up. Some argue that to attract these and other Obama voters, Republicans should move off base. Meanwhile, Republican Party Chairman Michael Steele works to merge all factions of the party into one cohesive and effective organization. Indeed, Obama is losing support with Hispanics and young voters. Seniors, who make up a disproportionate share of the electorate in midterm elections will also be critical in the upcoming cycles.

Ideologically, more Americans identify themselves as conservative than liberal by a two-to-one margin. What's more, also by a two-to-one margin, Americans report becoming more conservative in recent years. In each of the 50 states, conservatives now outnumber liberals. The term "liberal" is actually the least popular of all political labels. However, on specific policy issues, public opinion seems to be tilting more liberal.

These days, politics is money. For better or worse, exorbitant amounts of money shape races and can determine elections. On that point, Republicans are off to a better start than Democrats in 2009. The Senate campaign arm for Republicans, the NRSC, has outraised the DSCC two months in a row as Democrats have been jarred by a drop in fundraising. Meanwhile, on the generic ballot, Republicans have recovered from their deep deficits which preceded the last two election and pulled to even or slightly ahead, major signs of a changing political reality as Democratic Party ratings have plummeted.

In a sign that Republicans learned something from the dominance of the Obama campaign in Web 2.0, the GOP has taken a great liking to Twitter and is dominating the medium compared to their Democratic colleagues. With more Americans paying "very close" attention to politics than ever, Twitter provides a unique and direct way for elected officials to communicate with their constituents and supporters. Even John McCain, who did not know how to use a Blackberry as he ran for president, is now one of the most prolific tweeters on the Hill.

Aided by a variety of factors from Twitter to the mortalizing of Obama, Republicans will make gains in Congress in 2010 and may very well pick up wins in both gubernatorial races only 28 days away. How significant, or even historic, the GOP comeback will be a year from now remains to be seen. I look forward to following the races as excitement builds and news breaks. Stay tuned to the PG Blog for all the latest, follow on Twitter and send in first-hand accounts of campaigns around the country. It promises to be a fun ride.