Independent Swing: GOP Sweeps Big Races

On November 3, 2009, the Republican Resurgence began. In two races billed as potential bellwethers of political fortunes in the 2010 midterms and watched for signals of the prevailing political winds, the GOP scored enormous victories in two states, Virginia and New Jersey, controlled by Democrats for the last eight years. Debate is fierce over how much, or little, the two local governor's races truly mean on a national scale, but, whatever the extent of their significance, they were bad news for the Democratic Party and the White House as Independents, who loved Democrats in recent years swung hard to the GOP.

Many saw the resounding defeats of the Democratic candidates as a referendum on President Obama, more specifically on his liberal, big-government policies at which much of the country is bristling. Despite Obama winning Virginia by 6 and New Jersey by 15 one year ago, the White House political machine has put forward its best effort at defying logic and claiming that these major defeats in no way reflect on prevailing views of the President and his policies. What they cannot deny is that these elections proved Obama's inability to transfer his own magic in any tangible way to other Democratic candidates. Despite campaigning with Corzine in New Jersey three times and with Deeds in Virginia twice, attempts to leverage his influence in their favor, "Obama surge voters" stayed home, almost all of them. Obama's name will not be at the top of the ballot again until 2012, and if these trends hold, it will be a very long 3 years for Democrats between now and then.

While most voters told exit pollsters that Obama was not a factor in their vote, the policy path he has charted in Washington has been responsible for the backlash against Democrats, particularly among Independents. In Virginia, Obama won Independents only one year ago by one point, McDonnell won them by 31, a shocking 32 point swing! In New Jersey, Obama won Independents by 4, Christie by 27, a 31 points swing! Independents in the first 9 months of Obama's presidency have fled the Democratic party in mass.

Another key segment of voters in Obama's historic win was suburbanites. These voters, like Independents, which many of them are, swung hard to the Republican candidates in both Virginia and New Jersey. What's more, seniors strongly supported McDonnell, by 18, and Christie, by 15. Of voters in Virginia who identified the economy of their chief concern, McDonnell won by 14, another ominous sign for the President and Democrats. Young voters, who are challenging for both parties, actually supported McDonnell. Virginia, a swing state in 2008, swung hard back to the GOP as the Democrats' coalition went into shambles, and the ugly truth for Obama is that he actually hurt, rather than helped Deeds.

The White House may have turned a blind eye to the Republican victories, but Democrats on the Hill realized there was a strong message in them getting "walloped" and began doing some soul searching. For Democrats who cared to pay attention, these results were a wake-up call. They are "feeling angst over 2010" when they are at the mercy of voters across the country. They have been forced into a stark realization that it ain't 2008 anymore. You would expect this to make them quite a bit more cautious on the Obama agenda. Indeed, some Democrats admitted, "I should be worried," and begun rethinking support of the liberal agenda. They would be crazy not to.

Occurring almost exactly one year after Obama and down ballot Dems thumped Republicans for the second straight cycle, these landmark victories offered the GOP enormous hope for a much brighter future. Republican voters proved "fired up and ready to go storm the ballot boxes" which points to great success in the approaching midterms where turnout is the name of the game. Republicans are learning valuable lessons from these victories by looking back at the successful strategies employed. McDonnell, who is already fielding questions about a future in the While House, ran on the Republican middle. His conservative bonafides unquestioned, he focused his campaign like a laser beam on kitchen table issues of jobs, the economy and transportation. This is the model for Republican candidates in the coming cycles.

According to Press Secretary Robert Gibbs, Obama was not watching the returns on Election Night, and Pelosi had the audacity to say "we won last night." Perhaps they should smell the GOP roses which swept over them and start heeding the clear and poignant message from the American people, slow down and back off, or pay in 2010 and 2012. These races demolished the great realignment myth of 2008. Conservatism in strong in American, and the more brazen Democrats continue to be with their liberal policies, the higher the building GOP tide will rise and the deeper their losses will be in coming years.