Obama Honeymoon is Over, Health Care, Sotomayor & More

Capitol Hill has gotten hotter in the past few weeks. Sonia Sotomayor, the first Hispanic nominated for a lifetime appointment to the U.S. Supreme Court, withstood her confirmation hearings as fighting continues over health care reform with formal debate on a Democratic overhaul of the system taking to the floor in the near future.

On health care, Obama has hit major speed bumps in his frantic push for liberal health care reform. It would seem that the slower the sausage making of health care reform bills takes, the lower the chances they end up on the President's desk. This is no accident. As the American people get a better look at the Obama-Pelosi plan for our nation's health care system, the more weary they become. This is bared out in all recent polls which show support for the plan at new lows and falling fast. Even independents now have a negative opinion of how the President is handling health care reform.

At least as troubling to Obama as the recent polling is the enormous problem he is having coraling votes from his own party, from moderate and swing state Democrats. Nevermind the Republicans, whom Obama has decided he doesn't need, Obama's party is sharply divided on several aspects of the proposed policy and cannot seem to reach consensus. He is, in fact, losing support from nervous Democrats. The greatest recent blow came courtesy of the director of the Congressional Budget Office who said that the overhaul would increase, rather than reduce, long term health care costs facing the nation. His testimony was seen as a potentially devastating blow to the plan.

Despite being muzzled on many issues, the GOP has landed some punches on the Obama plan which have helped turn the tide of public opinion away from the President. The public is beginning to realize that the "public option" favored by Obama and his more liberal allies, is nothing more than a Trojan Horse for single-payer, government-run health care. Don't take my word for it, listen to Obama and his allies admit as much. Americans are also recognizing that it is a giant "taxapalooza" primarily, but by no means exlusively, on the wealthy at a time our economy can least afford it. Rather than reduce costs, the Democratic bill, like most things Obama has signed, will explode the deficit... even his argument about Medicare's administrative costs doesn't hold water. Here is a great look at Obama's "top five health care lies." Also, see this memo from the "message man" of the GOP which lays out the detrimental effects of the plan and advises Republicans on how to get our message across. One prominent member of the GOP who has stepped up is Louisiana Governor and rising star Bobby Jindal who penned a thoughtful op-ed on the issue. Michael Steele also spoke this week about the dangers of the "Obama experiment."

In response to the shifting tide on his idea of reform, the President has been in the forefront on a daily basis telling his party not to lose heart and the country that health care reform must happen now. He has even gotten down into the fray, directly attacking one of my favorite Senators, Jim DeMint from South Carolina.

The bottom line is this, ObamaCare is not inevitable. It has slowed and now faces enormous head winds resulting from inescapable facts and a related drop in public opinion. Charlie Cook believes that if Democrats are to get anything out of their health care overhaul effort, then must now settle for half the loaf. As a friend of mine said in admonishing me for drinking Diet Coke, half the french fries is still bad, but half the loaf would be better than the full weight of government's inefficient, ineffective, controlling and costly bakery in our health care.

The confirmation hearings of Sonia Sotomayor which transpired last week were wholly uninteresting and without drama. There is no doubt whatsoever that the first Hispanic justice will sit on the Supreme Court, and, despite her significant flaws in philosophy, it will be a good and proud day for the fastest growing segment of the great melting pot that is the United States of America. On Sotomayor, Republicans decided to pick their battles and decided to pass on this one. Note my previous comment about the fastest growing segment of our population if you need a good reason.

The one interesting development surrounding the Sotomayor hearings was the Supreme Court, yes the one she'll sit on, just before the hearings began, overturning her indefensible decision in the Ricci firefighter case which I have previously outlined. Wondering what the public thinks about Sotomayor? Only 54% of Americans can name a single Supreme Court justice. Enough said.

Obama's honeymoon is officially over. As I reported last month, Obama's poll numbers are coming down to earth fast and keep falling, particularly on his biggest issues, as Americans do the math on his policies. Speaking of doing the math, a new Rasmussen poll shows Obama tied with Mitt Romney in a hypothetical 2012 matchup. Less than half of Americans now believe the President has a clear plan for solving the country's problems although independents maintain a relatively positive opinion of him.

One significant effect is that Democrats are seeing their agenda slipping as the whole thing gets bogged down and Obama's momentum dramatically slows. Rather than sequentially address the most pressing issues of our time, our "Shuffle President" is taking a seemingly chaotic stab at all the above in an effort to remake America. The fate of all of his priorities could now be in danger. Peggy Noonan wisely suggests that Obama slow down and focus his administration on a sentence, not 10 paragraphs, saying "an administration about everything is an administration about nothing. The administration is so aware of this trend that it has put off the scheduled release of the latest budget update which it knows will greatly diminish its chances of pushing more record spending through Congress. Polls around our nation's birthday show that Americans still overwhelmingly believe in limited government, not the more expansive, expensive and intrusive government Obama desires.

LEFTOVERS:

The economy is still in shambles and showing timid signs of recovery. Faced with his own broken promises and a disappointed public, the President is attempting to move the economic goalposts. Here's a look at how he's doing on job growth since passing the $787 billion stimulus package. The budget deficit has topped $1 trillion for the first time while unemployment rose to 9.6% last month and has risen over 10% in 16 states, including several swing states critical to Obama in 2012. There is even talk of another stimulus bill. Shall we look at how the last one has fared so far?

Sarah Palin has decided to resign as Governor of Alaska. Bam! Wow! What? Many suspect she is resigning to focus on a Presidential run. Most see the move as puzzling at best as only 33% of Republicans think she has the ability to be an effective president. Despite the definite unorthodoxy of the move, a leading political commentator does not think she's crazy. As with all major developments in the political world, there are winners and losers. In the end, it appears that Palin, viewed favorably by 72% of Republican leaning voters, is here to stay. She adds evidence for that belief with a recent op-ed on Cap and Trade legislation.

The House of Representatives passed the economy killing Cap and Trade bill late last month, even with 44 Democrats voting nay, but thankfully it has dim prospects in the Senate where there are too many reasonable, moderate and vulnerable Democrats for easy passage of what would likely be the biggest tax in American history. Meanwhile, climate change, the underpinning of the legislation, is facing increasing scepticism.

Republicans are looking good in the two major races of 2009. McDonnell leads Deeds by 6 and 3 points for Virginia governor in recent polls while New Jersey gubernatorial candidate Chris Christie leads wildly unpopular governor Jon Corzine by 7 points.

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