SWINE FLU:WSJ: The World Health Organization's chief laid the groundwork Sunday for her agency potentially to declare a new strain of A/H1N1 swine flu a pandemic, saying such a move doesn't necessarily mean the disease is highly lethal or that it will sweep the entire globe. More...
Pearce: The Swine Flu has dominated the news worldwide over the last week and a half as the tallies of cases and deaths continued to rise in several different countries. Mexico, where the virus began, virtually shut down in the wake of the outbreak. While the flue appears to be waning in Mexico, the head of the WHO is now saying, "the end of the flu season in the northern hemisphere meant an initial outbreak could be milder but then a second wave more lethal, as happened in 1918." Although it is beginning to seem the worst of this first wave is behind us, it was not without several cases of alarm and drastic steps by governments around the world. In Hong Kong, 300 people were quarantined inside a hotel. In NYC, ERs were flooded with people fearing the Swine Flu. A flight was actually diverted to Boston because a passenger was feeling under the weather. In Egypt, the government ordered the killing of the nation's 300,000 pigs. Finally, in Israel officials claimed the calling it the "Swine Flu" is offensive to Jews and Muslime, and it should therefore be renamed the "Mexican Flu" because, of course, that is not offensive. On another note, President Obama is finding it more and more dangerous to let Joe Biden out of the house as he suggested on the Today show that Americans should avoid planes and subways... unbelievable.
In light of the flu (almost officially) pandemic, Reuters wrote an interesting article wondering if globalization has made us more catastrophe-prone. Also, David Brooks wrote an op-ed called Globalism Goes Viral.
THE TORTURE DEBATE:
Pearce: In light of Obama's release of Bush era memos justifying the use of waterboarding, the torture debate has returned to the forefront of DC dialogue. In his 100 Days press conference Wednesday night, Obama unequivocally declared that waterboarding is torture and unacceptable. At the same time, he acknowledged that, as Dick Cheney has been saying, the practice reportedly led to critical counterterrorism intel which thwarted a planned attack on Los Angeles. The salient question now, one on which Obama has waffled of late, is whether or not he will seek to prosecute the individuals who justified and authorized the method. There are also reports that Speaker Pelosi knew about waterboarding in 2002 and said nothing. In addition, Obama has ordered the release of detainee abuse photos requested by the ACLU. Meanwhile, the patriots at the CIA feel like they have been "hit with a car bomb in the driveway" by the Obama administration. Finally, ABCNews took a look at fascinating polling on the issue that reveals that public sentiment on torture is quite a mixed bag.
Needless to say, everyone has an opinion on the issue; here are a few...
Noonan: Obama was right to resist reopening the torture debate. More...
Krauthammer: Torture? No. Except... More...
Friedman: A Torturous Compromise. More...
WSJ: A Tortured Rationale. More...
WSJ: His invitation to indict Bush officials will haunt Obama's presidency. More...
Telegraph: Don't look back? Barack Obama and Torture. More...
BENEDICT ARLEN & THE GOP STRATEGY BOARD:
WP: Sen. Arlen Specter of Pennsylvania provided a boost to President Obama's ambitious legislative agenda Tuesday by abandoning the Republican Party in the face of shifting political realities at home and an aggressive courtship by the White House and party leaders. More...
Roll Call: Senator Ensign says the GOP will make sure Specter loses in 2010. More...
Pearce: Senator Jim DeMint, said, "I would rather have 30 Republicans in the Senate who really believe in principles of limited government, free markets, free people, than to have 60 that don’t have a set of beliefs." While I am a big fan of Senator DeMint, I must disagree with him on this point. There are unique reasons, some dealing with the particular circumstances of the electoral landscape in Pennsylvania, that the Specter defection may prove to be less of a blow to the GOP than some think. However, more generally, while it would be wonderful to have majorities in both houses of Congress comprised solely of the kind of "pure" conservatives that DeMint describes, this no longer appears realistic when looking at the electoral landscape across the country, with particular focus towards the northeast and midwest. DeMint would rather take what we can get to keep our membership exclusive; I would rather have a majority that can turn noble conservative principles into the policies that govern this great nation. To that end, I believe the GOP must take a more pragmatic approach and open up the proverbial tent and welcome fellow conservative with open arms, even if they don't happen to agree with us on every issue. I agree with Peggy Noonan that shrinking to win is not much of a strategy if Republicans hope to regain the majority anytime soon.
The following are others' thoughts and articles on the issue...
Noonan: 'Shrink to win' isn't much of a strategy. More...
Cillizza: The Republican shrinkage problem. More...
Rove: Republicans and the Tea Parties. More...
WSJ: Specter's switcheroo. More...
Rothenberg: Specter switch could send ripples far and wide for both parties. More...
Barone: Specter's party switch is all about winning. More...
Thomas: Good riddance Specter. More...
Kristol: Good news for Republicans! More...
Examiner: The trials of Michael Steele. More...
Politico: In GOP base, a 'rebellion brewing.' More...
Politico: Romney, Cantor: What went wrong in '08. More...
WT: Jeb Bush says it's time to leave Reagan behind. More...
MORE NEWS:
WSJ: A 'classified' photo op turns into a soaring blunder for the White House. More...
Pearce: If I were Obama, I don't know who I would be more upset with this week, Joe Biden or the idiot who ordered this photo shoot. Accoring to reports, the President hit the roof on this one, rightly so.
Politico: Supreme Court Justice David Souter plans to retire. More...
Fix: Murphy wins NY-20. More...
WSJ: Jack Kemp, Dole's '96 VP nominee dies at 73. More...
AP: Obama disowns the deficit he helped shape. More...
Fix: Obama beloved, his policies beliked. More...
Fix: 100 Days winners and losers. More...
Reuters: Obama revelling in U.S. power unseen in decades. More...
U.S. News: Rick Warren- From peacemaker to lighning rod. More...
Reuters: Geithner says downturn may be easing. More...
AP: Obama says Wall Street will play less domiant role. More...
NYT: Chrysler's fall may help Obama reshape GM. More...
Climate Depot: Democrats refuse to let global warming skeptic testify. More...
AP: Capitol briefly evacuated, White House locked down. More...
Pew: 2008 electorate most diverse yet. More...
Rove: The internet's growing role in American politics. More...
Slate: See when your county's jobs disappeared. Map h/t John Taddie
Mail: Obamas fly in check 860 miles... just to make pizza. More... h/t Chris Mike
Media Bistro: FoxNews beats CNN and MSNBC combined. More...
NYT: With rivals ahead, doubts for CNN's middle of the road strategy. More...
NYT: What's a necessity? More...
Politico: Stephen Colbert brings down the House. More...
NYT: Seeking to save the planet, with a thesaurus. More...
Politico: Feds investigate Edwards campaign. More...
Telegraph: Barbie doll given make-over with tatoos. More...
Independent: An invention that could change the internet. More...
MORE OPINION: (As you can see, I've caught up on a few weeks worth of columns.)
THE BIG 3 POLITICAL COMMENTATORS:
Michael Barone:
U.S. moving toward Europe, but do Americans want to go? More...
Back to the future- Obama's foreign policy. More...
Obama lets Congress and lobbyists do the work. More...
Like JFK, Obama brings fresh style. More...
Beware of mandatory arbitration in Card Check. More...
Stuart Rothenberg:
For Obama, deference is starting to become a troubling habit. More...
Media cover Obama like he's ultimate A-list celebrity. More...
Burr polling in perilous territory. More...
Charlie Cook:
Watch the Independents. More...
Who'll play defense? More...
Deciphering early clues on 2010. More...
Running up the tab. More...
OTHER OP-EDS:
Rove: Obama outsources his presidency. More...
Morris: A crisis Obama won't waste. More...
Krauthammer: Obama's grand strategy. More...
Friedman: Swimming without a suit. More...
WSJ: Obama wants to control the banks. More...
WSJ: Cramdown slamdown. More...
Morris: Obama sows seeds of demise. More...
WSJ: Better bad news. More...
Noonan: Lessons from the recovery of 2001. More...
Brooks: Yanks in crisis. More...
Brooks: Big spending conservative. More...
Morris: The anti-success presidency. More...
WSJ: The liberal hour. More...
Heritage: Why is the President smiling? More...
WSJ: Reckless 'endangerment.' More...
Heritage: Cap and Trade a jobs killing bill. More...
Heritage: Cap and Trade's $3,900 per family per year price tag. More...
WSJ: Teach for (some of) America. More...
NOTES:
As promised, Billy Hughes offered up an excellent 'comment' on my last blog post complete with several new items of interest. Check it out!
The Pearce Godwin blog has gone mobile! Read PG on your Blackberry or iPhone @ http://m.pearcegodwin.com/
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A few thoughts about the swine flu:
It is clear that swine flu is dominating the world's attention and is a serious public health threat. The intense outbreak interventions that countries across the globe are implementing seem to be slowing the spread of the swine flu, since in two weeks only ~1500 swine flu cases have been confirmed across the world. There are sure to be more than this number infected because it takes at least several days for a sample to be dianostically confirmed. While there are signs that the outbreak is being successfully contained due to the intervention of health officials and may be waning, I have to agree with the CDC director's stern warning that we may not have seen the end of the swine flu and should stay vigilant.
The epidemiology, or pattern of disease of influenza is incredibly complex. To start, the flu bug is an RNA virus, and thus can rapidly evolve into new strains. It is able to do this because of the errors replicative enzyme makes in reproducing the viral genome, mutations are introduced into this genetic material, and over time these mutations compound and new strains are constantly being generated. The main consequence of this is the synthesis of the 2 viral surface proteins that can more readily infect cells lining the lungs and avoid the body's immune response. Another interesting capability of influenza is its tendency to incorporate parts of other viruses' genome into its own through genetic recombination. The influenza genome exists in 8 separate strands instead of one strand, as viruses like dengue and yellow fever. If two different influenza viruses infect the same cell, both sets of genetic material are released (8 each), and they can become integrated when a new virus particle buds from the cell. That probably explains why the H1N1 strain has components from birds, pigs, and humans-cross contact between species occurred over the past few months or years. Eventually, and as we saw this past May, a virus was produced that had the ability to survive and replicate in pig and humans and eventually transformed into a bug that was spread through interpersonal contact.
With no way to control how virulent the H1N1 bug may or may not become, we have to focus our efforts on preventing its spread and coming up with a vaccine as soon as possible. The more the virus spreads (i.e. the more times it passes from one person to another) the more it evolves, possibly increasing in virulence. While this is a concern, the flu seems to peak during cold months, as dry air and colder temperatures facilitate close interpersonal contact and subsequently more opportunities for the virus to spread. Combined with the public health measures America and Mexico are taking, the close advent of summer in North America will hopefully be an aid in decreasing flu transmission. Additionally, people should be more aware of the flu and take personal measures, like proper and increased handwashing, to protect themselves. Hopefully the advent of winter in the southern hemisphere will not bring about an explosion of H1N1 as it originated in the northern hemisphere, but ecological conditions will favor its transmission.
The main question to ask is by the time seasonal flu hits in the fall in the northern hemisphere, will the H1N1 virus be present, be deadlier, and will it have spread to a degree to which treatment will be expensive and potentially ineffective? Ideally a vaccine can be mass produced by september if the bug does hit.The trick that faces organizations like the WHO is how much effort and money must be spent to contain the virus in this period where flu subsides naturally. Will people stay vigilant into the summer? Will quarantines continue?
It is my hope that the flu bug stays as mild as it has proven to be over the past few weeks. The flu bug that killed tens of millions in 1918 was an H1N1 that evolved after its first exposure in people into an incredibly lethal pathogen. With all that we know about how influenza can evolve and the role that ecological conditions and the ease of transmission play in the spread of the flu, I hope that the world stays as vigilant as it is presently into the coming months. As as expensive quarantines and mask distributions cannot be sustained, the burden will mostly fall upon each person to take precautionary measures, most importantly hand-washing and staying hope when you have symptoms. The flu is a puzzling disease and it is my hope that we will emerge from this crisis more knowledgeable and prepared to handle future epidemics.
Stating the Facts: Obama's harrowing health care plan
By Frank Crocker
The Obama administration has announced a 10-year $634 billion dollar healthcare plan. The funds will come from tax hikes on wealthy Americans with the final goal making health care available to all Americans. In this article I am going to fully explain as to how this bill is a terrible idea.
I would like to start by saying that there are some parts of the plan that are OK, such as preserving physician and insurance choice, and cost savings through more efficient medical records (establishing a unified, electronic medical record database). The problem is that is that it is the government doing it and not the private sector. There will be too much pork and too much waste given the extreme inefficiency and downright corruption that goes with large government spending bills.
What is also important is what is left OUT of these comments by President Obama. Physicians are paid to take care of Medicare patients based on a system of what is called Relative Value Units (RVU's). That is, a simple procedure (say, a chest x-ray) is assigned a very low RVU and an MRI a higher value, and a complex arterial interventional case a yet higher value. Doctors are then paid a certain amount per RVU. Thus, there is what is called an RVU conversion rate which is the number of dollars per RVU that doctors are paid. The problem is that the conversion rate has either stayed stagnant or eroded for 10 or more years- this is concurrent with increasing overhead costs for supplies, insurance, payroll, malpractice coverage, etc. So, now many small offices, especially family doctors and other primary care doctors, are to the point that if the conversion rate drops any more that they will have to stop taking Medicare patients, or at least any new Medicare patients because they literally lose money by seeing them. This is in the face of the baby boom generation getting older.
The RVU conversion rate erosion is the main factor contributing to the large shortage of doctors. Radiologists, Cardiologists, Neurologists, and other specialties take many years of training. The incentive for well qualified people to go into such specialties is disappearing and thus overall quality will decrease in the future as well. Many thousands of people are in the health care business and this bill, while maybe increasing health care coverage, is decreasing the quality of health care.
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